In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is stronger this morning, at R18.22/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R18.24/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+0.8%), MXN (+0.7%) and INR (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the CLP (-0.8%), TRY (-0.7%) and BRL (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai composite are down.

• BOE Governor Andrew Bailey yesterday called for global economies to “come together” to help ease trade tensions.
• He noted domestic macroeconomic forces and current trade policy as not compatible.
• The BOE last week voted to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged and warned that uncertainty over trade had intensified following new US tariffs.

• The German Ifo survey for March will provide more information tomorrow how the German economy fared in Q1:25.
• The Ifo survey will be crucial for gauging the state of the economy after the federal election.
• The business climate index is likely to have increased to 86.7 in March, from 85.2 in February.
• The expectations gauge is expected to have increased to 87.3 in March, from 85.4 in February.

• US President Trump yesterday again called for the Fed to lower interest rates.
• President Trump, at a cabinet meeting, noted that “prices are coming down, and energy prices are coming down”.
• Just last week, President Trump noted that the Fed would be much better off cutting rates as his planned tariffs hit the economy.
• The Trump administration plans to announce a set of new tariffs on 2 April.

• US new homes sales for February are due out today; a 3.5% m/m increase is expected in February, following a 10.5% m/m decline in January.
• The decline in mortgage rates in February may have assisted prospective buyers to close deals.
• There has been an increase in the inventories of new homes recently; builders are thus enthusiastic to close deals with potential buyers.
• The S&P CoreLogic house price index is likely to have increased by 4.8% y/y in January, from 4.48% y/y in December.
• The FHFA house price index for January, also on the cards today, likely increased by 0.3% m/m in January, after having increased by 0.4% m/m in December.
• The US Conference Board consumer confidence index for March likely slipped to 94.0, from 98.3 in February.

• Locally, the SARB’s leading indicator for January is scheduled for release today; the index slipped to 112.8.0 in December.
• The only positive contributor in December was an acceleration in the six-month smoothed growth rate in the job advertisement space.
• The coincident indicator, which measures current economic conditions, slipped to 96.5 in November, from 96.6 in October.  
• The BER’s consumer confidence index for Q1:25 is on the cards; consumer confidence deteriorated to -6 in Q4:24.
• The Q4:24 non-farm payrolls are also due out; payrolls decreased by 1.2% q/q in Q3:24.

• Brent crude is unchanged this morning, and down by 2.2% year-to-date.
• The gold price is up this morning, and up by 15.1% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $73.00/bbl; ($73.00/bbl*).
• Gold is at $3019/oz ($3007/oz*).
• SA CDS 216bps*, Brazil 184bps* and Turkey 317bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.33%*, German bund at 2.77%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.66%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.65%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

• 09h00: SA leading indicator (January)
• 10h00: SA BER consumer confidence index (Q1:25)
• 11h00: Germany IFO business climate (March)
• 11h30: SA non-farm payrolls (Q4:24)
• 15h00: US FHFA house price index (January), S&P CoreLogic house price index (January)
• 16h00: US new home sales (February), Conference Board consumer confidence index (March)
• US building permits (February – final)

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