In the loop 22 September 2026

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

The rand is trading at R16.26/$ this morning, after closing slightly stronger yesterday (R16.24/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the CLP (+1.2%), KRW (+0.9%) and RUB (+0.9%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-0.6%), IDR (-0.5%) and RON (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets, the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite, are up this morning.

Iran war: Gulf states are advocating for a reset on Iran on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly.
The UAE is urging for a “new mindset” and Qatar has called for a regional “security framework”; both signal the need for dialogue with Iran to secure future stability within the region.
President Trump will address world leaders at the UN General Assembly this week, with the high-level General Debate beginning today, and he is expected to meet with Gulf state leaders on the sidelines to discuss the crisis.
G7 nations urged Yemen's Houthis to stop attacks on Saudi Arabia, thereby showing support for Riyadh amid the wider Middle East conflict.
Their statement also called on Iran "to end its arming of and support for the Houthis", alleging that Tehran is in violation of past UN Security Council resolutions.
World leaders will also be discussing the war in Ukraine at the UN this week; Trump is expected to meet with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

France is calling on the European Commission to bring forward measures to tame energy prices.
European gas prices have increased from €27 to €80 per megawatt hour this year as a result of the Iran war.
The requests include the delay of an incoming law that could restrict the availability of imported oil and gas in Europe.
There is also a suggestion for the temporary easing of technical rules on refiners, to allow higher production.
Furthermore, it suggests the enabling of the use of more biofuels and an extended joint EU purchasing of gas-to-liquid products such as jet fuel and diesel.
France's fiscal constraints have limited its ability to shield its citizens from higher energy prices.
Eurozone consumer confidence for September is due out today.
Consumer confidence is expected to have remained at a relatively low level, with the index likely dipping marginally, to -16.0, from -15.5 in August.

Several monetary policymakers have commented on the risks to inflation from renewed pressure on oil and refined product prices due to the conflict in the Middle East.
The ECB's Chief Economist Philip Lane has warned that geopolitical risks have again increased.
He noted that inflation has trended higher and is proving more persistent than he had anticipated.
“We are now witnessing a second wave of price rises, not only in oil but also in gas” said Lane.
Lane warned that this “second wave of energy price rises we are witnessing today should exert upward pressure on food prices, on energy in the broader sense, including electricity, and on goods in general”.
RBNZ Governor Anna Breman also cautioned that if oil prices remain elevated, inflation will overshoot the RBNZ's current forecasts.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock said that supply shocks are difficult for monetary policy to deal with, but that policy needs to address the second-round effects of such shocks on inflation.
Bullock noted that the concern is that inflation expectations may become entrenched.

Today sees the release of a few US economic indicators for September.
This includes the ADP employment change for the week of 5 September.
The Richmond Fed releases its manufacturing index, including business conditions during September.
The Philadelphia Fed non-manufacturing activity indicator for September is also due out this afternoon.

Locally, the SARB's business cycle indicators for July will be a focus today.
In June, the leading indicator dipped to 116.6, from 118.2 in May.

Brent crude oil is currently at $101.72/bbl; ($100.34/bbl*).
Gold is at $4325/oz ($4343/oz*).
SA CDS 126bps*, Brazil 120bps* and Turkey 243bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.95%*, German bund at 3.46%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.83%*, SA's R2035 at 8.62%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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