In the loop
Shireen Darmalingam
What you should know this morning:
- The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.58/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.62/$*).
- EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the TWD (+0.3%) and CLP (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-1.4%), HUF (-0.9%) and THB (-0.8%) were the biggest losers.
- Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
- The IMF will release its latest global economic forecasts today at the annual meetings in Washington.
- In July, the IMF forecast 3.2% global growth this year (from 3.3% in 2023) and 3.3% next year.
- BOE Governor Andrew Bailey is due to make comments on the UK economy and monetary policy later today.
- BOE policymaker Megan Greene will also speak on monetary policy today.
- The central bank will meet on 7 November to decide on rates.
- Several ECB policymakers will also be in the spotlight today, including ECB President Christine Lagarde.
- Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reiterated that he favours reducing interest rates at a slower pace in the coming quarters.
- He sees some further modest cuts over the coming quarters to get to around the neutral interest rate.
- He commented that labour market weakness could warrant a faster rate cutting pace by the Fed.
- Kansas Fed President Jeffrey Schmidt noted yesterday that he supports a slower pace of interest rate cuts given uncertainty about how low the Fed should ultimately cut rates.
- He said that hoped for a “more normalized” monetary policy cycle where the bank makes “modest” adjustments to sustain economic growth, stable prices and full employment.
- San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly commented that she expects the bank to continue cutting interest rates to guard against further weakening in the labour market.
- Daly added that “this is a very tight interest rate for an economy that already is on a path to 2% inflation”.
- Locally, the SARB’s leading indicator for August is scheduled for release today; the index increased to 113.6 in July, from 112.8 in June.
- Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 4.0% year-to-date.
- The gold price is up this morning, and up by 32.5% year-to-date.
- Brent crude oil is currently at $73.95/bbl; ($74.29/bbl*).
- Gold is at $2732/oz ($2723/oz*).
- SA CDS 183bps*, Brazil 155bps* and Turkey 270bps*.
- Yields: US 10yr at 4.19%*, German bund at 2.28%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.57%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.63%*.
* Denotes yesterday’s close.
Key events and data:
- 09h00: SA leading indicator (August)
- 15h00: IMF World Economic Outlook (October)
- 16h00: US Richmond Fed manufacturing index (October)
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