In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.58/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.62/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the TWD (+0.3%) and CLP (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-1.4%), HUF (-0.9%) and THB (-0.8%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

• The IMF will release its latest global economic forecasts today at the annual meetings in Washington.
• In July, the IMF forecast 3.2% global growth this year (from 3.3% in 2023) and 3.3% next year.

• BOE Governor Andrew Bailey is due to make comments on the UK economy and monetary policy later today. 
• BOE policymaker Megan Greene will also speak on monetary policy today.
• The central bank will meet on 7 November to decide on rates.
• Several ECB policymakers will also be in the spotlight today, including ECB President Christine Lagarde.

• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari reiterated that he favours reducing interest rates at a slower pace in the coming quarters.
• He sees some further modest cuts over the coming quarters to get to around the neutral interest rate.
• He commented that labour market weakness could warrant a faster rate cutting pace by the Fed.
• Kansas Fed President Jeffrey Schmidt noted yesterday that he supports a slower pace of interest rate cuts given uncertainty about how low the Fed should ultimately cut rates.
• He said that hoped for a “more normalized” monetary policy cycle where the bank makes “modest” adjustments to sustain economic growth, stable prices and full employment.
• San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly commented that she expects the bank to continue cutting interest rates to guard against further weakening in the labour market.
• Daly added that “this is a very tight interest rate for an economy that already is on a path to 2% inflation”.

• Locally, the SARB’s leading indicator for August is scheduled for release today; the index increased to 113.6 in July, from 112.8 in June. 

• Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 4.0% year-to-date.
• The gold price is up this morning, and up by 32.5% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $73.95/bbl; ($74.29/bbl*).
• Gold is at $2732/oz ($2723/oz*).
• SA CDS 183bps*, Brazil 155bps* and Turkey 270bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.19%*, German bund at 2.28%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.57%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.63%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

Key events and data:

• 09h00: SA leading indicator (August)
• 15h00: IMF World Economic Outlook (October)
• 16h00: US Richmond Fed manufacturing index (October)

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