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In the loop 23 October 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is steady this morning, at R16.51/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.50/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+0.5%) and RUB (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the ZAR (-0.9%), CLP (-0.6%) and PLN (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are down, while the Hang Seng is up.
 
  • Iran war: President Trump has rejected Iran's proposed Hormuz arrangement.
  • Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian maintained that the reopening process could begin once Washington accepted Tehran's plan.
  • The US naval blockade and sanctions consequently remained in place.
 
  • Japan's CPI came in at 2.2% y/y in September, from 1.9% y/y in August, reflecting broadening price pressures. 
  • Core inflation increased to 2.1% y/y in September, from 1.7% y/y, in line with market expectations but exceeding the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) 2% target for the first time in nine months. 
  • The measure, excluding both fresh food and energy, rose to 2.4% y/y in September, from 1.9% y/y in August, signalling strengthening underlying inflationary pressures. 
  • The acceleration was driven by higher energy costs stemming from the Middle East conflict, elevated import prices due to the weak yen, and increased cost pressures associated with strong demand for AI-related products.
  • Goods inflation accelerated to 2.8% y/y in September, from 2.6% y/y in August.
  • Services inflation increased to 1.5% y/y in September, from 1.2% y/y in August, suggesting that firms are increasingly passing higher labour costs on to consumers. 
 
  • UK consumer confidence deteriorated sharply in October, with the GfK consumer confidence index plunging by 11 points, to -24, from -13 in September, significantly below market expectations of -14. 
  • Besides the pandemic, it was the biggest monthly decline since the 2016 Brexit vote.
  • The deterioration was broad-based, reflecting mounting concerns over rising inflation, higher energy costs, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, and persistent pressure on household finances. 
  • Consumers became markedly more pessimistic about the broader economic outlook.
  • Their willingness to make major purchases fell to its lowest level in more than two years.
 
  • The UK composite PMI for October, due out today, is expected to have moderated to 51.7, from 52.0 in August.
  • Retail sales for September are expected to have increased by 1.0% y/y, down from a 2.4%y/y increase in August.
  • On a m/m basis, sales are expected to have declined by 0.1% in September, following a 0.5% increase in August.
  • The Eurozone October composite PMI is likely to have slipped to 52.7, from 53.1 in August.
  • The ECB's 3-year inflation expectations are expected to have remained unchanged, at 2.9%, in September.
  • The one-year ahead inflation expectations are likely to have increased to 3.1% in September, from 3.0% in August.
 
  • The US leading indicator flatlined in September, after declining by 0.1% m/m in August.
  • Five of the index's ten components made positive contributions, led by the interest rate spread and average weekly hours in manufacturing. 
  • However, these gains were offset by a sharp deterioration in consumer expectations, alongside smaller negative contributions from stock prices, capital goods orders, and building permits. 
  • The Conference Board noted that the improvement in the index's six-month growth rate suggests that the US economy remains on an expansionary trajectory.
  • It noted that growth is becoming increasingly reliant on business investment rather than consumer spending. 
 
  • The US composite PMI for October, scheduled for release today, is expected to have slipped, albeit remaining in expansion.
  • Both the manufacturing and services PMIs are expected to have remained above the 50pt benchmark.
 
  • Locally, it's a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 87.3% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and down by 6.9% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $113.97/bbl; ($113.17/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $4021/oz ($4024/oz*).
  • SA CDS 13bps*, Brazil 119bps* and Turkey 257bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.95%*, German bund at 3.33%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.79%*, SA's R2035 at 8.59%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday's close. 

Key events and data:

  • 08h00: UK retail sales (September)
  • 10h00: Eurozone S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite PMI (October), ECB 1 yr and 3 yr inflation expectations (September)
  • 10h30: UK S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite PMI (October)
  • 15h45: US S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite PMI (October)
  • 16h00: US University of Michigan sentiment index, 1 yr and 5-10 yr inflation expectations (October – final)
 
 

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