In the loop 02 September 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.86/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R17.81/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the RUB (+1.7%), MXN (+0.7%) and BRL (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-1.4%), KRW (-0.5%) and HUF (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Central bank watch: the National Bank of Poland will meet on Wednesday and is largely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged, at 5.75%.
The Bank of Canada is set to continue its gradual easing with a 25 bps cut, also on Wednesday.
Bank Negara Malaysia is likely to hold its overnight policy rate at 3.00% on Thursday.

China’s Caixin manufacturing PMI overshot expectations in August, coming in at 50.4, from 49.9 in July.
The official PMIs, released over the weekend, and high-frequency indicators imply this economic recovery as experiencing another lull.

Turkey’s GDP for Q2:24 is due out today; the economy likely expanded by 3.2% y/y in Q2:24, after increasing by 5.7% y/y in Q1:24.
Turkey’s CPI, due out tomorrow, is likely to come in at 51.9% y/y for August, from 61.8% y/y in July.
German industrial production for July is on the cards on Friday.

The US S&P Global manufacturing PMI for August (final estimate), due out tomorrow, likely remained unchanged at 48.0, from the previous estimate, and from 49.6 in July.
The lSM manufacturing index for August is also due out tomorrow; the index likely increased to 47.5 in August, from 46.8 in July.
The US Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) job openings for July, due on Wednesday, are likely to have fallen further.
The July JOLTS print should show openings down, to 8.10 million, from 8.184 million in June.
Non-farm payrolls (NFP) for August, due out on Friday, likely increased, by 165k, following an increase of 114k in July.
The unemployment rate is likely to have improved to 4.2% in August, from 4.3% in July.
The Fed will release its Beige Book on Wednesday, shedding light on the performance of the US economy in August.

Locally, the BER manufacturing PMI for August is due out today; the index increased to 52.4 in July.
The August Naamsa vehicle sales are also due out today; vehicle sales increased by 1.5% y/y in July.
GDP for Q2:24 is in the spotlight on Tuesday and is expected at 0.5% q/q (sa), from a contraction of 0.1% q/q (sa) in Q1:24.
On a y/y basis, GDP growth is expected at 0.3% in Q2:24, from 0.5% in Q1:24.
The industry-wide PMI for August is due out on Wednesday; the index is currently below the 50pt benchmark, at 49.3.
The BER will release the Q3:24 business confidence data on Wednesday; the index improved to 35 in Q2:24.
The current account for Q2:24 is on the cards on Thursday; the deficit is likely to have narrowed to 1.0% of GDP in Q2:24, from a deficit of 1.2% of GDP in Q1:24.
Electricity production and consumption for July are scheduled for release on Thursday.

Brent crude oil is currently at $76.34/bbl; ($79.94/bbl*).
Gold is at $2497/oz ($2503/oz*).
SA CDS 183bps*, Brazil 149bps* and Turkey 276bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 3.90%*, German bund at 2.29%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.47%*, SA’s R2030 at 9.17%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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