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In the loop 22 April 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R19.09/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R19.10/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the PEN (+1.3%), CLP (+1.1%) and RUB (+0.9%) were the biggest gainers; the PHP (-0.8%), KRW (-0.7 %) and IDR (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are up, while the Shanghai Composite is down.
  • The Bank of Japan is due to hold policy rates steady at its meeting on Friday.
  • Investors will keep an eye on Governor Kazuo Ueda’s comments on policy guidance.
  • The BOJ is expected to hike rates twice more this year; markets are thus likely to be on the alert for hawkish signals.
  • Bank Indonesia will also meet this week and might hike rates by 25 bps, to 6.25%, on Wednesday.
  • In Australia, the Q1:24 CPI report, due out on Wednesday, will likely show inflation making progress in nearing the central bank’s 2%-3% target band.
  • China’s commercial banks kept their loan prime rates unchanged today, following the PBOC’s decision to hold.
  • The Eurozone composite PMI for April, due out tomorrow, should provide an indication of whether this economy continued to strengthen into Q2:24.
  • The UK composite PMI for April, also due out tomorrow, might signal that the economy continued to recover from its mild recession last year.
  • The German Ifo survey for April, scheduled for release on Wednesday, is also expected to provide further information on the state of the German economy.
  • Central banks in Russia and Turkey are due to meet this week to decide on rates; while on different paths, both banks are expected to hold rates steady this week. 
  • US new homes sales for March are due out tomorrow; a recovery is expected in March following February’s surprise decline. 
  • It’s likely that prospective buyers have started considering new homes, as inventory of existing homes remains historically low.
  • Durable goods orders for March, due out on Wednesday, are expected to have increased by 2.5% m/m, following a 1.3% m/m increase in February.
  • The US Q1:24 GDP is on the cards on Thursday; GDP growth is expected at 2.5% q/q in Q1:24, from 3.4% q/q in Q4:23.
  • Consumer spending is likely to have been the main driver supporting growth in Q1:24.
  • Personal income and spending for March are due out on Friday.
  • The Fed will keep an eye on the core PCE deflator, which is expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m in March, matching February’s increase.
  • Locally, the SARB’s leading indicator for February is scheduled for release tomorrow; the index increased to 110.8 in January. 
  • The March PPI is also on the cards this week (Thursday) and is expected at 4.6% y/y, from 4.5% y/y in February.
  • On a m/m basis, PPI is likely to have increased by 1.2% in March, after having increased by 0.5% m/m in February.
  • Eskom: loadshedding remains suspended until further notice.
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 12.3% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 14.9% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $86.53/bbl; ($87.29/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $2370/oz ($2391/oz*).
  • SA CDS 255bps*, Brazil 160bps* and Turkey 318bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.62%*, German bund at 2.50%*, SA 10-year generic at 12.15%*, SA’s R2030 at 10.75%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

  • 16h00: Eurozone consumer confidence (April)

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