In the loop 12 August 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is steady this morning, at R16.18/$, after closing slightly weaker yesterday (R16.20/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the ARS (+0.5%), KRW (+0.3%) and CLP (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the BRL (-1.0%), PHP (-0.9%) and THB (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.

Iran war: there has been renewed deterioration in negotiations over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the broader effort to end the conflict.
The main sticking point is the widening gap between US and Iranian demands.
Iran reiterated that the Strait would remain closed until Washington ended its military campaign and naval blockade, released frozen Iranian assets, eased sanctions, and accepted compensation claims for damages.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has said that inflation remains a bigger concern than weakness in the labour market.
Goolsbee noted that the biggest problem facing the US economy is that prices have been rising too quickly, noting that households strongly dislike inflation.
By contrast, labour market indicators, including unemployment, hiring and layoffs, suggest that conditions remain stable, albeit not particularly strong.

Atlanta Fed interim President Cheryl Venable yesterday warned that inflation remains too high, with the outlook heavily dependent on the Middle East conflict.
She said that an end to the war could ease energy prices by restoring oil flows, while prolonged tensions could keep prices elevated.
Venable described the labour market as broadly stable despite July's job losses.
She added that slower labour force growth reflects tighter immigration policies and an ageing population.

US existing home sales fell for a second consecutive month in July, by 1.7% m/m (to 4.06 million units – a 3-month low), after having fallen by a revised 1.4% m/m (4.13 million) in June.
The weakness reflected continued affordability pressures as mortgage rates climbed to their highest level in about a year.
This has discouraged both prospective buyers and homeowners from entering the housing market.
Despite the monthly decline, sales were up by 0.7% y/y in July, while year-to-date activity was up by 2.4%.
Total housing inventory fell 1.9% m/m in July, to 1.54 million units, equivalent to 4.6 months of supply.
The median existing home price increased 2.0% y/y, to $434,100.

The US July CPI report will be the key focus today; headline inflation is expected to have moderated to 3.4% y/y in July, from 3.5% y/y in June.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.1% in July, following a 0.4% fall in June.
Core CPI is also expected to have moderated to 2.5% y/y in July, from 2.6% y/y in June.

Brent crude oil is currently at $89.53/bbl; ($88.91/bbl*).
Gold is at $4392/oz ($4370/oz*).
SA CDS 122bps*, Brazil 122bps* and Turkey 225bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.68%*, German bund at 3.15%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.60%*, SA's R2035 at 8.40%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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