In the loop 20 March 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.92/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R18.91/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+0.4%), ZAR (+0.3%) and PLN (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the CLP (-1.8%), RUB (-0.8%) and PHP (-0.7%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

The Fed’s FOMC interest rate announcement is scheduled for later today; the central bank is largely expected to keep the Fed funds rate unchanged.
Investors will keep an eye on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments after the meeting for clues on the timing of interest rate cuts.
The Fed’s updated dot plot will also be available, together with updated macroeconomic forecasts.
The Summary of Economic Projections is likely to show several FOMC policymakers upwardly revising their neutral rate estimate.

The UK CPI figures for February are on the cards today, a day before the BOE interest rate decision; CPI is likely to have moderated in February.
CPI is likely to come in at 3.5% y/y in February, from 4.0% y/y in January.
On a m/m basis, however, CPI is likely to have increased by 0.7% in February, after having declined by 0.6% in January.
Food, core goods and services are likely to be the main driver of CPI in February.
Core CPI is also likely to have moderated in February, to 4.6% y/y, from 5.1% y/y in January.
The BOE will meet on Thursday and is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady, at 5.25%.
The first interest cut is expected at the June monetary policy meeting.

The Eurozone consumer confidence for March is likely to have improved to -15.0, from -15.5 in February.

Locally, the February CPI is due out today and is expected to come in higher, at 5.5% y/y, from 5.3% y/y in January.
Core CPI is also likely to come in higher, at 4.9% y/y February, from 4.6% y/y in January.
Retail sales for January, due today, are expected to have increased by 0.9% y/y, after having increased by 2.7% y/y in January.
Eskom: Stage 2 loadshedding is currently in place until further notice.

Brent crude oil is currently at $87.22/bbl; ($87.38/bbl*).
Gold is at $2157/oz ($2156/oz*).
SA CDS 233bps*, Brazil 125bps* and Turkey 322bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.29%*, German bund at 2.45%* and SA 10-year generic at 11.83%*, SA’s R2030 at 10.46%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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