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In the loop 13 May 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R18.40/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R18.44/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the THB (+0.6%), MXN (+0.6%) and ZAR (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the PEN (-0.7%), PLN (-0.4%) and BRL (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are down, while the Hang Seng is up.
  • The People’s Bank of China is likely to keep its policy rate unchanged on Wednesday.
  • China’s activity data, due out on Friday, will likely show a production-led rebound restrained by sluggish consumption.
  • Japan’s GDP for Q1:24 is scheduled for release on Thursday and is expected to have contracted by 1.2% q/q, after having increased by 0.4% q/q in Q4:23.
  • This contraction is expected on the back of a temporary setback in the auto sector.
  • UK labour data, due out tomorrow, will likely show that wage gains remained elevated in Q1:24.
  • The unemployment rate is expected to have increased to 4.3% in March, from 4.2% in February.
  • Eurozone industrial production for March, out on Wednesday, is likely to have increased by 0.8% m/m, matching February’s increase.
  • The Eurozone Q1:24 GDP is scheduled for release on Wednesday and is likely to come in at 0.3% q/q, matching the increase in Q4:23.
  • The Eurozone CPI for April (final estimate), scheduled for release on Friday, will provide the data needed to better understand what drove sticky services price inflation lower during the month.
  • Headline CPI is expected to come in at 2.4% y/y in April, from 2.4% y/y in March.
  • The US April CPI is in the spotlight this week on Wednesday; both headline and core inflation are likely to have moderated in April.
  • Headline CPI is likely to come in at 3.4% y/y in April, from 3.5% y/y in March; core CPI is expected at 3.6% y/y in April, from 3.8% y/y in March.
  • PPI for April, due out tomorrow, likely increased to 2.2% y/y in April, from 2.1% y/y in March.
  • The US NFIB small business optimism for April, due out tomorrow, is likely to reflect a continued deterioration; the index likely slipped to 88.2 in April, from 88.5 in March.
  • April’s retail sales are due out on Wednesday; sales likely slowed entering Q2:24 from March’s elevated pace.
  • Business inventories for March, also scheduled for release on Wednesday, likely stagnated in March, following an increase of 0.4% m/m in February.
  • The NAHB housing market index for May is due for release on Wednesday; sentiment among home builders likely remained flat in May.
  • Housing starts and building permits for April are due out on Thursday.
  • The April data will likely show a partial retracing of housing starts and permits following the steep declines in March.
  • Locally, mining production for March, due tomorrow, likely increased by 2.9% y/y, after having increased by 9.9% y/y in February.
  • Mining production is likely to have declined by 0.6% m/m in March, after having increased by 5.0% y/y in February.
  • The Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) for Q1:24 is also due out tomorrow; the unemployment rate is expected to have increased to 32.3% in Q1:24, from 32.1% in Q4:23. 
  • Retail sales for March, due out on Wednesday, is expected to have declined by 1.0% y/y, following the 0.8% y/y decline in February.
  • On a m/m basis, sales are likely to have increased by 0.2% in March, after increasing by 0.4% in February.
  • Eskom: loadshedding remains suspended until further notice.
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 7.1% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 14.0% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $82.50/bbl; ($82.79/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $2351/oz ($2360/oz*).
  • SA CDS 227bps*, Brazil 140bps* and Turkey 283bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.49%*, German bund at 2.51%*, SA 10-year generic at 11.92%*, SA’s R2030 at 10.50%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

  • No economic data releases.

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