In the loop 16 March 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.86/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R16.93/$*).
EM currencies were largely down on Friday; the HUF (-1.6%), BRL (-1.5%) and THB (-1.4%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are down, while the Hang Seng is up.

Middle East war: US President Trump has said that Iran is prepared to negotiate an end to the conflict but added that the US is seeking more favourable terms before any agreement is reached.
Trump also urged other countries to deploy naval forces to help keep the Strait of Hormuz open.

Central bank watch: the US Fed is scheduled to meet on Wednesday and is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged.
The ECB will hold its policy meeting on Thursday, and too is expected to keep rates steady.
ECB President Christine Lagarde is likely to adopt a measured tone, emphasising the bank's readiness to act, if necessary, while signalling no immediate urgency to adjust rates.
Both central banks are currently in their external communications blackout periods ahead of their policy decisions.
The BOE is largely expected to keep rates unchanged on Thursday and is expected to signal that the balance of risks to its inflation outlook are tilted to the upside.
The Bank of Canada is expected to keep its overnight rate target at 2.25% when its Governing Council meets on Wednesday.
The Swiss National Bank is also widely expected to hold its policy rate at 0% on Wednesday.
The Swedish Riksbank will meet on Thursday and is likely to remain on hold for the rest of this year.
The Reserve Bank of Australia appears poised to deliver a second consecutive rate hike as policymakers respond to renewed inflationary pressure driven by rising energy prices.
The Bank of Japan is expected to leave its policy settings unchanged.
The key question is whether policymakers will offer guidance on how the recent surge in oil prices may influence the timing of the next rate moves.

The Eurozone's final inflation report for February, due on Wednesday, will provide more detailed insight into the factors behind the recent acceleration in headline, core and services inflation.
The UK labour market data for January is scheduled for release on Thursday and is expected to continue pointing to a gradual loosening in labour market conditions.

The US Empire manufacturing index, scheduled for release today, is projected to ease to 3.9 in March, from 7.1 in February.
The index had peaked at 13.5 in November, then dropped to -3.7 in December.
Industrial production for February, also due today, is expected to have increased by 0.1% m/m, slowing from the 0.7% m/m increase recorded in January.
The NAHB housing market index is expected to have increased slightly in March, to 37, compared with 36 in February.
The new home sales data, due on Thursday, is likely to show a decline in February, as mortgage rates stabilised during the first half of the month after several months of declines.

Locally, the Q1:26 BER inflation expectations are on the cards today.
The February CPI is due on Wednesday and is expected to come in at 3.1% y/y, from 3.5% y/y in January.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.5%, after having increased by 0.2% m/m in January.
Core CPI is projected at 3.2% y/y in February, from 3.4% y/y in January.
January's retail sales are also due this week (Wednesday) and are expected to reflect growth of 2.9% y/y, up from a 2.6% y/y increase in December.

Brent crude oil is currently at $104.75/bbl; ($103.14/bbl*).
Gold is at $5010/oz ($5019/oz*).
SA CDS 162bps*, Brazil 139bps* and Turkey 270bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.27%*, German bund at 2.98%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.02%*, SA's R2035 at 8.6%*.

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

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