In the loop 15 January 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.41/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.43/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the KRW (+0.8%), RUB (+0.5%) and CLP (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-1.5%), BRL (-0.4%) and PHP (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Central bank watch: the Central Bank of Korea has kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged, at 2.5%.

According to the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) UK Residential Market Survey, the headline net balance for house prices held steady, at ?14% in December.
However, the measure of expected home sales jumped to 22%, up from ?4% in November, indicating that more agents now anticipate an increase in sales over the next three months.
RICS reported that buyer demand and agreed sales remained in negative territory in December.
However, both indicators improved slightly, pointing to early signs that the downturn in the housing market may be starting to ease.

The UK monthly GDP data for November is likely to confirm that the economy ended 2025 on a weak note.
GDP is expected to have risen by 0.1% m/m in November, following a 0.1% m/m contraction in October.
Industrial and manufacturing output data for November will also be released.
Industrial production is expected to have stagnated, after rising by 1.1% m/m in October, while manufacturing output is forecast to have increased by 0.4% m/m, following a 0.5% m/m gain previously.
Germany’s annual GDP figures, also due today, are expected to show modest growth in 2025, supported by higher public spending aimed at bolstering economic performance in 2026.
Eurozone trade data will be closely watched for signs of continued weakness in trade with the US and for evidence that China may be diverting goods from the US to the region.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the next Fed chair will need to persuade fellow policymakers on the appropriate path for interest rates.
He emphasised that FOMC decisions are driven by data and analysis, with each member having one vote and the strongest argument carrying the day.
Kashkari expects interest rates to remain unchanged at the Fed’s meeting later this month, citing a resilient economy and concerns about still-elevated inflation.
He added that policymakers may be able to cut rates again later this year.

Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson meanwhile signalled that rates could move lower later this year if inflation continues to ease and the labour market stabilises.
She said the current policy rate remains “a little restrictive” and suggested that further easing would be appropriate.
Paulson expects inflation to keep moderating, growth to settle near 2%, and the labour market to stabilise.

US existing home sales increased more than expected by 5.1% m/m (to 4.35m) in December, after having increased by a revised 0.7% m/m (4.14m) in November.
The median home price rose 0.4% y/y in December, to $405,400.
The US Empire State manufacturing index for January is on the cards today and is expected to have improved to 1.0, from -3.9 in December.

Locally, electricity production and distribution figures for November are scheduled for release on Thursday.

Brent crude oil is currently at $64.37/bbl; ($66.52/bbl*).
Gold is at $4587/oz ($4626/oz*).
SA CDS 138bps*, Brazil 140bps* and Turkey 222bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.13%*, German bund at 2.81%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.41%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.28%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

09h00: UK monthly GDP (November), industrial production (November), manufacturing production (November), trade balance (November)
11h00: Eurozone ECB publishes Economic Bulletin
12h00: Eurozone trade balance (November), industrial production (November)
13h00: SA electricity production and consumption (November)
15h30: US Empire manufacturing (January), initial jobless claims (10 January)

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