In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.63/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.57/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the BRL (+0.3%), RUB (+0.2%) and IDR (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the ZAR (-0.9%), CLP (-0.6%) and ARS (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

• The results of the ECB’s quarterly Bank Lending Survey, due out today, will probably confirm demand for supply of credit as improving.
• Eurozone industrial production is also on the cards today; industrial production is likely to have increased by 1.8% m/m in August, after having declined by 0.3% m/m in July.
• On a y/y basis, production is expected to have declined by 1.0% in August, following a 2.2% decline in July.
• The m/m increase is expected on the back of stronger-than-expected German industrial production in August.

• The Eurozone ZEW expectations survey for October is scheduled for release today.
• The index deteriorated in September, to 9.3, from 17.9 in August.
• Recent data has pointed to bleak near-term prospects for the economy.
• The survey captures the opinions of finance professionals rather than real economic activity.

• UK wage data for August is due today; wage growth is likely to come in at 3.7% y/y in the three months to August, from 4.0% y/y in the three months to July.
• This will likely support the case for the BOE to cut rates further when it meets next month.
• The unemployment rate is expected to have remained unchanged, at 4.1%, in August.
• A low response rate, however, continues to affect the Labour Force Survey outcome despite recent improvements.

• Fed Governor Christopher Waller has signalled caution on interest rate cuts as he voiced concern over recent US inflation data, which he described as “disappointing”.
• He added that uneven progress has been made towards the Fed’s 2% target.
• Waller emphasized that the US economy is on a “solid footing,” with employment near the FOMC’s maximum objective.
• He also highlighted continued strength in consumer spending, despite some moderation.

• The US Empire manufacturing survey for October is due out today; the headline index is expected to show that business conditions have worsened in October, to 3.6, from 11.5 in September.
• The index swung into expansion last month.
• The sustainability of this however is in question as surveys for other regions point to contraction.
• The ISM manufacturing PMI for September suggested that a further slowdown can be expected in the coming months.

• Locally, the SACCI business confidence index for September will be released today; the index increased to 109.1 in August.

• Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 3.2% year-to-date.
• The gold price is down this morning, and up by 27.9% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $74.55/bbl; ($77.46/bbl*).
• Gold is at $2638/oz ($2648/oz*).
• SA CDS 180bps*, Brazil 155bps* and Turkey 268bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.10%*, German bund at 2.27%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.37%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.43%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

• 08h00: UK ILO unemployment rate (August), average weekly earnings (August)
• 11h00: Eurozone ZEW survey expectations (October), industrial production (August)
• 11h30: SA SACCI business confidence index (September)
• 14h30: US Empire manufacturing (October)

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