In the loop 10 February 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.50/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R18.40/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the THB (+0.4%), IDR (+0.3%) and COP (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the BRL (-0.8%), CZK (-0.7%) and HUF (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Central bank watch: the Bank of Russia will meet on Friday and Saturday and likely keep its policy rate at 21% as it attempts to bring inflation down.

The UK GDP for Q4:24, due on Thursday, is expected to have contracted, after having flatlined in Q3:24.
Government consumption will likely support economic activity in 2025.
Industrial production for December will be released on Thursday.
The sector is expected to continue to struggle, with no clear signs of any meaningful pickup in the coming months.
Eurozone GDP for Q4:24 is due out on Friday and is expected to come in at 0.4% q/q, matching Q3:24’s increase.

US Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver is semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow.
The January CPI will also be in focus this week (Wednesday) and is likely to come in at 2.9% y/y, matching December’s increase.
On a m/m basis, headline CPI is likely to have increased by 0.3% in January, after having increased by 0.4% in December.
The NFIB small business optimism index for January, due out tomorrow, is likely to have slipped to 104.7, from 105.1 in December.
Retail sales for January, out on Friday, is expected to have declined 0.1% m/m, following a 0.4% m/m increase in December.
Industrial production for January is also on the cards on Friday and likely increased by 0.3% m/m, following a 0.9% m/m increase in December.
Manufacturing production and business inventories for January are also scheduled for release.

Locally, manufacturing production for December is due out tomorrow; production is expected to have declined by 1.7% y/y, after having fallen by 2.6% y/y in November.
On a m/m basis, manufacturing production is likely to have decreased by 0.3% in December, following a 1.1% decrease in November.
Mining production for December is due out on Thursday; production declined by 0.9% y/y in November.
Mining production declined by 0.2% m/m in November.

Brent crude oil is currently at $75.26/bbl; ($74.66/bbl*).
Gold is at $2875/oz ($2861/oz*).
SA CDS 200bps*, Brazil 173bps* and Turkey 252bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.48%*, German bund at 2.37%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.40%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.42%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

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