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Standard Bank Group
In the loop 24 April 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R19.09/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R19.11/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the BRL (+0.8%), HUF (+0.7%) and CZK (+0.7%) were the biggest gainers; the PEN (-0.3%), TRY (-0.2%) and THB (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
  • Australia’s CPI came in higher than expected in March, at 3.5% y/y, from 3.4% y/y in February.
  • Core CPI increased to 4.1% y/y in March, from 3.9% y/y in February.
  • The data implies price pressures as proving stickier, supporting the case for the Reserve Bank of Australia to hold interest rates steady at a 12-year high.
  • Bank Indonesia will meet today and might hike rates by 25 bps, to 6.25%.
  • This is expected in the central bank’s attempt in arresting the IDR’s decline; the currency has been affected by speculation that US interest rates might stay higher for longer.
  • The German Ifo business climate for April, scheduled for today, is expected to provide further information on the state of the German economy.
  • The index is expected to have increased further, to 88.8 in April, from 87.8 in March.
  • Firms have become increasingly satisfied with their current business situation.
  • The ongoing improvement has been broad-based, with the business climate improving in the manufacturing, services, trade and construction sectors.
  • The US composite PMI slipped more than expected in April, dropping to 50.9, from 52.1 in March.
  • Both the manufacturing and services PMI fell more than expected in April.
  • The manufacturing PMI slipped into contraction in April, coming in at 49.9, from 51.9 in March.
  • Further slippages are expected in the coming months as the economy deals with elevated inflation and interest rates.
  • The services index came in lower, at 50.9 in April, from 51.7 in March.
  • US new home sales increased in March, by 8.8% m/m (to 693k annualised), after having declined by a revised 5.1% m/m in February (to 637k annualised).
  • The increase to the highest level since September 2023 came on the back of an increase in inventory, which helped drive prices lower.
  • The median selling price of a home decreased to $430,700 in March; the average selling price is $524,800.
  • New home supply increased in March, by 2.6% m/m, to 477,000.
  • US durable goods orders for March, due out today, are expected to have increased by 2.5% m/m, following a 1.3% m/m increase in February.
  • Eskom: loadshedding remains suspended until further notice.
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 14.9% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 12.8% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $88.50/bbl; ($88.42/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $2326/oz ($2330/oz*).
  • SA CDS 248bps*, Brazil 154bps* and Turkey 306bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.60%*, German bund at 2.50%*, SA 10-year generic at 12.09%*, SA’s R2030 at 10.68%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

  • 10h00: Germany IFO business climate index (April)
  • 13h00: US MBA mortgage applications (19 April)
  • 14h30: US durable goods orders (March)

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