In the loop 05 March 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.43/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.33/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the KRW (+1.8%), ZAR (+1.7%) and COP (+1.5%) were the biggest gainers; the HKD (-0.7%), RUB (-0.3%) and PHP (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez yesterday said he would not bow to pressure over Spain's opposition to the US-Israel war in Iran.
He stated that Spain would not be “complicit in something that is harmful to the world and contrary to our values and interests simply out of fear of retaliation”.
His comments followed threats by President Trump to cut off trade with Spain after Madrid denied access to US military bases for the US bombing campaign against Iran.
The European Commission responded by saying it expects the US to honour commitments made under a trade agreement signed last year and stands ready to act, if necessary, to protect EU interests.

EU foreign ministers are set to meet today with counterparts from the Gulf Cooperation Council to discuss Iran's attacks on neighbouring countries in the Middle East.
EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas warned that the conflict risks widening.
He also expressed concern that developments in the Middle East may be diverting attention away from Ukraine.

In the Eurozone, January retail sales data are due later today, with y/y growth expected to have increased to 1.7% y/y, from 1.3% y/y in December.
On a m/m basis, sales are likely to have increased by 0.3% in January, after a 0.5% decline in December.
The UK Decision Maker Panel's (DMP) February survey results on inflation expectations will be released today.
The three-month ahead inflation expectations are expected to come in 3.4% in February, from 3.5% in January.
The one-year ahead inflation expectations are expected at 2.8% in February, down from 2.9% in January.

The US ISM Services PMI rose to 56.1 in February, from 53.8 in January, marking its strongest expansion since mid-2022.
Fourteen service industries reported growth during the month, while three recorded contractions.
The acceleration was driven by solid gains in new orders and business activity.
The ISM's new orders index climbed to 58.6, its highest level in more than a year, while export demand strengthened notably.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessemer said yesterday that President Trump's proposal to raise the broad 10% tariff rate to 15% is likely to be implemented this week.
Bessent did not specify which trading partners would be subject to the higher rate.
He noted that the legal authority underpinning the new duties allows them to remain in place for only 150 days without congressional approval.
Bessent added that he expects tariff rates to return to their previous levels within five months.

The Fed's Beige Book indicated that US economic activity expanded at a slight to moderate pace across most regions in recent weeks.
However, a growing number of districts reported flat or declining conditions.
Employment levels were generally stable, with some firms increasingly turning to artificial intelligence to improve efficiency.
Wages continued to rise at a modest to moderate pace in most regions.
Eight of the Fed's 12 districts reported moderate inflation, though firms expect the pace of price increases to slow somewhat in the near term.
The report also noted that policymakers remain mindful of the possibility that interest rates may need to rise if inflation proves persistent.

Locally, electricity production and consumption data for January are due for release today.

Brent crude oil is currently at $84.09/bbl; ($81.40/bbl*).
Gold is at $5173/oz ($5140/oz*).
SA CDS 145bbps*, Brazil 126bps* and Turkey 237bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.11%*, German bund at 2.75%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.35%*, SA's R2035 at 8.21%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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