In the loop 13 October 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is trading at R17.34/$ this morning, after closing weaker on Friday (R17.50/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the BRL (-2.8%), ZAR (-1.7%) and KRW (-1.3%) were the biggest losers; the CZK (+0.7%), RON (+0.6%) and BGN (+0.6%) were the biggest gainers.
Asian equity markets, the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite, are down.

Central bank governors and finance ministers are gathering in Washington for the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings which will continue until 18 October.

China’s trade, inflation and credit data will be among the key releases in the week ahead.
Export growth likely strengthened as increased shipments to non-US markets offset a decline in exports to the US.
Both producer and consumer prices are expected to have fallen at a slower pace in September.
China’s credit growth may have eased amid reduced local government bond issuance and subdued loan demand.

UK labour market data, due tomorrow, will be closely watched by the BOE.
The figures are expected to show further signs of stabilisation in employment, alongside a continued moderation in wage growth.
The BOE is widely anticipated to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged later this month.
UK monthly GDP data for August, set for release on Thursday, is likely to reinforce evidence of a slowdown emerging in the second half of 2025.
In the Eurozone, the final CPI reading for September is expected to confirm that headline inflation rose to 2.2% y/y.
The detailed breakdown should offer clearer insight into the underlying drivers of services inflation.

As the US government shutdown extends into its third week, several key economic releases, including CPI, PPI and retail sales, will be delayed.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced last week that it would recall some staff to publish the September CPI report on 24 October.
In the absence of major data, attention will turn to other releases such as the Beige Book and the NFIB small business optimism index.
The Beige Book is expected to show sluggish employment growth and signs of consumer resistance to higher prices.
The NFIB index likely edged down to 100.5 in September, from 100.8 in August.
The Empire manufacturing index, due out on Wednesday, is expected to have improved to around zero in October, after -8.7 in September.

Locally, August mining production data will be released tomorrow and is expected to show a 1.7% y/y increase, following a 3.4% y/y rise in July.
On a m/m basis, mining output grew by 1.0% in July.
The SACCI business confidence index for September is also due tomorrow.
Confidence rose to a four-month high in July, reflecting a somewhat improved operating environment despite ongoing tariff risks.
August retail sales data, scheduled for release on Wednesday, are expected to show a 3.7% m/m increase, after a robust 5.6% m/m increase in July.

Brent crude oil is currently at $63.70/bbl; ($62.73/bbl*).
Gold is at $4074/oz ($4018/oz*).
SA CDS 171bps*, Brazil 153bps* and Turkey 265bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.03%*, German bund at 2.64%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.19%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.08%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

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