In the loop 22 October 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.40/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.35/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+0.7%), TWD (+0.6%) and INR (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers; the MXN (-1.0%), CLP (-0.6%) and COP (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

Iran war: the security situation deteriorated as Iran-aligned Houthi forces launched new attacks on Saudi targets.
These developments underscored the fragility of diplomatic efforts.
Tehran maintained that it remained open to an eventual agreement, while warning that it was prepared to defend itself if hostilities continued.

Central bank watch: Bank Indonesia (BI) yesterday kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged, at 5.75%.
The central bank said the decision was consistent with its strategy of stabilising the rupiah amid persistent external pressures, while keeping inflation within its target range in 2026 and 2027.

UK consumer confidence deteriorated further in October, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC)-Opinium consumer sentiment monitor.
The deterioration reflects mounting concerns over inflation, rising interest rates, and geopolitical uncertainty ahead of next week's Budget.
Expectations for the broader economy over the next three months fell to -40 in October, from -34 in September, marking a third consecutive monthly decline.
Sentiment regarding personal finances also weakened, to -18 in October, from -15 in September.
However, expectations for retail spending rose sharply, to +15 October, from +5 in September, partly reflecting anticipated spending ahead of the festive season.

ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane yesterday noted that wider international use of the euro could strengthen the ECB's ability to control inflation by extending the reach of Eurozone monetary policy beyond its borders.
Lane said that wider euro use would extend the ECB's influence over global demand and strengthen monetary policy transmission.
He also said that greater use of the euro for trade invoicing could make import prices less sensitive to external shocks.
Lane further highlighted that ECB liquidity facilities support wider euro use, with over 30 central banks expressing interest.
Overall, a stronger international role for the euro could therefore improve the transmission of ECB monetary policy and support the central bank's ability to maintain price stability.

The Eurozone consumer sentiment index for October is scheduled for release today.
Sentiment is likely to have deteriorated to -17.0 in October, from -16.5 in September.

The US leading indicator for September, due out today, is expected to have decreased by 0.1% m/m, matching August's decline.

Oil prices are up again this morning following further Houthi attacks on Saudi targets, including a civilian airport and an oilfield.
This has heightened concerns about further disruptions to regional energy infrastructure and shipping.
Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 82.7% year-to-date.
The gold price is down this morning, and down by 5.4% year-to-date.

Brent crude oil is currently at $111.05/bbl; ($108.82/bbl*).
Gold is at $4088/oz ($4140/oz*).
SA CDS 129bps*, Brazil 115bps* and Turkey 250bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 5.11%*, German bund at 3.42%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.76%*, SA's R2035 at 8.55%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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