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Standard Bank Group
In the loop 28 September 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.37/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R16.30/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the COP (1.2%), KRW (+0.8%) and RUB (+0.7%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-0.3%), MXN (-0.2%) and TRY (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are down, while the Hang Seng is up.
 
  • Iran war: US President Trump has indicated that negotiations with Iran were expected to resume during this week, after rejecting Tehran's latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and advance a broader ceasefire arrangement, arguing that the offer did not meet US objectives.
  • Iran maintained that it remained prepared for both diplomacy and a potential resumption of intensified conflict.
 
  • Central bank watch: the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected hike the cash rate by 25 bps, to 4.60%, tomorrow.
  • Sri Lanka's central bank will likely hold rates steady on Wednesday, giving its previous hike more time to work despite rising inflation.
 
  • China's PMIs this week are expected to point to some improvement in activity.
  • Manufacturing is likely to return to expansion, supported by resilient exports.
 
  • The Eurozone CPI report for September will be the key data release in the region on Friday.
  • Headline CPI is expected to have increased to 3.7% y/y in September, from 3.2% y/y in August.
  • A headline increase is likely to illustrate the broad impact of the energy shock on the Eurozone economy.
  • Core CPI is expected to at 2.5% y/y in September, up from 2.4% y/y in August.
  • The Eurozone consumer sentiment index for September (final estimate) is due out tomorrow; sentiment is likely to have remained unchanged, at -16.5 in September, from the previous estimate, and from -15.5 in August.
  • Economic confidence is expected to have increased to 98.9 in September, from 98.4 in August.
  • The region's unemployment rate for September, due out on Thursday, is expected to have remained unchanged, at 6.4%. 
  • The UK Decision Maker Panel (DMP) survey for September is scheduled for release on Friday.
  • Policymakers at the BOE will watch the survey closely for signals on inflation persistence risks. 
 
  • The US JOLTS job openings data for August, due for release tomorrow, likely slipped to 7.225 million in August, from 7.271 million in July.
  • The non-farm payrolls for September are due for release on Friday; payrolls are expected to have increased by 90k in September, after having increased by 162k in August.
  • The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged, at 4.1%.
  • Personal income, due on Wednesday, is expected to have increased by 0.4% m/m in August, the same as in July.
  • Personal spending is likely to have increased by 0.9% m/m in August, after having increased by 0.2% in July.
  • The updated estimate of Q2:26 US GDP is also scheduled for release on Wednesday.
  • GDP is expected at 1.5% q/q (annualised) in Q2:26, unchanged from the previous estimate, and from 2.1% q/q (annualised) in Q1:26.
 
  • Locally, Stats SA will release the non-farm payroll for Q2:26 tomorrow; non-farm payrolls decreased by 0.8% q/q in Q1:26.
  • The SARB publishes its September Quarterly Bulletin tomorrow.
  • The M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for August are scheduled for release on Wednesday; PSCE increased by 7.41% y/y in July.
  • The August PPI is due out on Wednesday and is expected at 5.6% y/y, after having increased by 5.7% y/y in July.
  • On a m/m basis, PPI is likely to have increased by 0.3% in August, following a 1.0% decline in July.
  • The August trade balance is due for release on Wednesday; the trade surplus is expected at R18.0bn in August, from a surplus of R20.1bn in July. 
  • The monthly budget balance for August is also scheduled for release on Wednesday.
  • The BER manufacturing PMI for September is due for release on Thursday; the index fell to 45.8 in August, from 46.8 in July.
  • The September Naamsa vehicle sales are also on the cards on Thursday; vehicle sales increased by 11.4% y/y in August.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 76.5% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and down by 3.0% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $106.93/bbl; ($104.32/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $4191/oz ($4284/oz*).
  • SA CDS 130bps*, Brazil 126bps* and Turkey 249bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 5.16%*, German bund at 3.60%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.97%*, SA's R2035 at 8.78%*.
 

* Denotes Friday's close. 

Key events and data:

  • 16h30: US Dallas Fed manufacturing activity (September)
 

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