In the loop 24 October 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is unchanged this morning, at R17.34/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.34/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+0.7%), CLP (+0.6%) and PEN (+0.6%) were the biggest gainers; the HUF (-0.6%), KRW (-0.4%) and PHP (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

The White House has confirmed that President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping will meet on the sidelines of the APEC Summit next week.
Trump stated that he aims to extend the pause on higher tariffs on Chinese goods in exchange for China resuming US soybean purchases, cracking down on fentanyl, and easing restrictions on rare earth exports.
Trump also noted that all trade talks with Canada have been halted, citing a Canadian advertisement opposing tariffs that featured the voice of former President Ronald Reagan.

UK consumer sentiment improved slightly in October, with GfK’s confidence index rising to -17, from -19 in September.
Households were somewhat more willing to spend on big-ticket items, as the major purchases index climbed to -12, its highest level since January 2022.
The data indicate that consumers are proving resilient ahead of the 26 November budget when Chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to announce further tax increases.
However, sentiment about the broader economy remains downbeat, with more households viewing this as a good time to save.
Retailers also continue to rely on promotions to draw shoppers into stores.

UK retail sales for September are on the cards today; sales are likely to have increased by 0.4% in September, following a 0.7% y/y increase in August.
On a m/m basis, retail sales are likely to have declined by 0.4% in September, after having increased by 0.5% in August.

The Eurozone and UK PMI data releases for October are due out today.
The Eurozone composite PMI survey for October will provide an indication of how well the economy is holding up after the boost to activity.
The composite index is expected to have slipped, albeit only marginally in October, and remaining in expansion, at 51.1, from 51.2 in September.
The manufacturing index is likely to have remained unchanged and in contraction in October, while the services index is likely to have slipped.
The UK composite PMI is expected to have continued its recovery in October.
The composite, manufacturing and services indices are all likely to have increased in October, albeit only marginally.

The US government shutdown, now in its fourth week, has disrupted the release of several key economic reports.
The delayed September CPI data is now scheduled for release on Friday.
Headline inflation is expected to come in at 3.1% y/y in September, from 2.9% y/y in August.
On a m/m basis CPI is projected to have increased by 0.4%, matching the prior month’s pace.
Core CPI is expected to come in at 3.1% y/y.

The US PMI data releases for October are also due out today.
The composite index is expected to have slipped in October but likely remaining in expansion.
It is expected to come in at 53.1 in October, from 53.9 in September; the services PMI is expected to have fallen to 53.5 in October, from 54.2 in September.
The manufacturing PMI is expected at 51.9, from 52.0 in September.

Brent crude oil is currently at $65.79/bbl; ($65.99/bbl*).
Gold is at $4113/oz ($4126/oz*).
SA CDS 161bps*, Brazil 144bps* and Turkey 266bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 3.99%*, German bund at 2.58%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.04%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.92%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

08h00: UK retail sales (September)
10h00: Eurozone HCOB manufacturing, services and composite PMI (October)
10h30: UK S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite PMI (October)
14h30: US CPI (September)
15h45: US S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite PMI (October)
16h00: US University of Michigan sentiment, 1 yr and 5-10 yr inflation expectations (October – final)

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