In the loop 16 September 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.33/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.36/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+0.9%), BRL (+0.7%) and HUF (+0.6%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-0.8%), THB (-0.6%) and COP (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are up, while the Shanghai Composite is down.

ECB Governing Council member Martin Kocher noted yesterday that policymakers remain ready to respond to shifts in economic data, even though inflation risks in the region are currently “fairly balanced.”
He added that, during last week’s policy meeting, ECB officials expressed different views on the risks facing the region.
He stressed that individual countries and governors perceived inflation risks in varying ways.

UK labour market data is in focus today as markets await the BOE’s policy decision on Thursday.
The ILO unemployment rate is expected to have remained unchanged, at 4.7%, in the three months to July.
Private sector wage growth is expected to have eased slightly, to 4.7% y/y in July, down from 4.8% y/y in August.
The Labour Force Survey response rate, while still low by historical standards, is beginning to show signs of improvement.
The Eurozone ZEW survey expectations for September are due out today.

A US appeals court has blocked President Trump from firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook from her position while her lawsuit is challenging the dismissal proceedings.
The Fed is due to announce its interest rate decision tomorrow and is largely expected to cut the Fed funds rate by 25 bps.

US retail sales, scheduled for release today, are expected to have increased by 0.2% m/m in August, down from July’s 0.5% m/m increase, reflecting slower automotive sales.
Industrial production for August, also due out, may show a modest 0.1% m/m decline, matching that of July.
Manufacturing output likely fell 0.2%, after holding flat in July.
Business inventories are likely to have risen 0.2% m/m in July.
The NAHB housing market index (September) could show improved builder confidence amid expectations of a Fed rate cut.

Locally, it’s a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.
In his weekly newsletter, President Cyril Ramaphosa acknowledged the significant challenges facing SA’s public services, including a skills gap, outdated systems and processes, inconsistent service delivery, and corruption.
He emphasised the importance of the National Dialogue as a platform to address these issues and called on citizens to hold government accountable and engage constructively with public institutions.
President Ramaphosa committed to a series of government interventions aimed at strengthening the professional foundations of the public service.
These include attracting the right skills to improve service delivery, implementing rigorous performance management systems, and creating career pathways that reward merit and excellence.
He stressed that the National Dialogue presents an opportunity to reshape the relationship between public servants and the public, fostering greater trust and responsiveness.

Brent crude oil is currently at $67.51/bbl; ($67.44/bbl*).
Gold is at $3683/oz ($3678/oz*).
SA CDS 151bps*, Brazil 129bps* and Turkey 252bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.03%*, German bund at 2.69%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.31%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.20%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

08h00: UK ILO unemployment rate (July)
11h00: Eurozone ZEW survey expectations (September), industrial production (July)
14h30: US retail sales (August)
15h15: US industrial production (August), manufacturing production (August), capacity utilisation (August)
16h00: US business inventories (July), NAHB housing market index (September)

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