Sign in
Research link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services
Economics link-chevron Created with Sketch.
FX Report
The Loop
Inside China
Insights & Strategy
Equities link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Equities Enablement Lab
Analysts
Analysts
Help and Support
Help and Support
Corporate and Investment Bank
Standard Bank Group
South Africa FX 05 November 2026

FX Monthly Chart Book

Shireen Darmalingam

  • The rand experienced a volatile and generally weaker October, with USD/ZAR weakening to around R16.70/$ by month-end, leaving the currency roughly 1.7% weaker against the dollar, 0.1% against the euro, and 2.7% against the pound. The rand initially benefited from improving domestic fundamentals, including a relatively favourable inflation outcome and the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS), which reinforced progress towards fiscal consolidation. USD/ZAR strengthened to around R16.34/$ after the budget, but these gains proved short-lived as external pressures subsequently dominated. Among emerging market currencies, the COP, RUB, KRW, INR and CNY were among the strongest performers in October, while the BRL, MXN, RON, PLN and TWD lagged.
  • The main headwinds were higher global oil prices, renewed geopolitical tensions, weaker precious metal prices, and a firmer US dollar. Escalating Middle East tensions pushed Brent crude above $116/bbl, worsening South Africa's import and inflation outlook, while weaker gold prices removed an important source of support for the rand. Renewed concerns about US inflation and interest rates supported the dollar and weighed on emerging market currencies. Overall, improving domestic fundamentals provided some support, but global developments ultimately kept the rand under pressure.
  • Meanwhile, Stats SA's benchmarking and rebasing of SA's national accounts increased the estimated size of the economy in 2022 by 4.9%, to R6.990tn, from R6.667tn previously. Mining recorded the largest upward revision, at 12.5%, partly reflecting improved coverage of illegal mining activity, while finance, real estate and business services increased by 9.1%, largely due to methodological improvements related to owner-occupied housing. Real GDP growth in 2022 was revised marginally higher to 2.2%, although subsequent growth rates were revised lower, including 2025 growth to 0.9% from 1.1%.
  • The larger GDP base provides a welcome improvement in SA's key fiscal ratios, mechanically lowering both debt-to-GDP and the budget deficit as a share of GDP. The FY25/26 debt-to-GDP ratio, for example, is estimated at around 74.6%, compared with 78.4% previously. This should be positive at the margin for investor sentiment and sovereign credit assessments, given the importance of these ratios to rating agencies.
  • However, the revisions do not materially alter our view of SA's underlying trend growth or sovereign credit rating outlook. While the improved fiscal ratios provide a more favourable starting point, they do not change the underlying pace of fiscal consolidation and/or key structural fiscal risks. For the rand, the improved fiscal picture should provide some domestic support, although the currency remains highly sensitive to oil prices, geopolitical risks, commodity prices, global risk appetite, and the US dollar.
  • We expect the currency to end 2026 at R16.20/$ and 2027 at R16.40/$.
 

Read PDF