In the loop 02 February 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.24/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R16.14/$*).
EM currencies were largely down on Friday; the ZAR (-2.2%), CLP (-1.7%) and COP (-1.5%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down this morning.

Central bank watch: the BOE will meet on Thursday and is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady.
The BOE is expected to publish new forecasts, which will likely show headline inflation as nearing its 2% target as early as 2Q26.
The ECB is also likely to remain on hold on Thursday.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to hold rates steady tomorrow; however, it is likely to be a close call.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to deliver a final 25 bps cut, to 5.0%, on Friday.

Eurozone inflation is due out on Wednesday; CPI is expected to have dipped below the ECB's 2% target in December, and is expected to have eased further in January.
The ECB's bank lending survey (BLS) is scheduled for release tomorrow.
The BLS may show that the stimulative impact of looser monetary policy on lending conditions continues to fade.
Industrial activity for Germany likely increased in December; the data is due out on Friday.

The US ISM manufacturing PMI for January is due out today and is likely to have increased modestly, to 48.5, from 47.9 in December.
The ISM services PMI for January is due out on Wednesday; services activity in January likely expanded at a slower pace than in the previous month.
The US JOLTS job openings for December are on the cards tomorrow and are likely to show an increase.
The non-farm payrolls (NFP) for January are scheduled for release on Friday; payrolls are expected to have increased by 68k, after having increased by 50k in December.
The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged, at 4.4%.
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for February is also due for release on Friday.
Consumer sentiment likely slipped at the beginning of February, after it rose in January.

Locally, the BER manufacturing PMI for January is due for release today; the index decreased to 40.5 in December, from 42.0 in November.
The January Naamsa vehicle sales are also on the cards today; vehicle sales increased by 19.2% y/y in December.
The industry-wide PMI for January is due out on Wednesday; the index is currently below the 50 benchmark, at 47.7.
Electricity production and consumption for December are due for release on Thursday.
The SARB's gross and net reserves for January are scheduled for release on Friday.
Gross reserves came in at $75.89bn in December, while net reserves came in at $71.14bn in October.

Brent crude oil is currently at $66.02/bbl; ($70.69/bbl*).
Gold is at $4667/oz ($4894/oz*).
SA CDS 137bps*, Brazil 128bps* and Turkey 219bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.23%*, German bund at 2.84%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.15%*, SA's R2035 at 8.03%*.

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

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