Sign in
Research link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services link-chevron Created with Sketch.
link-chevron Created with Sketch. Products and Services
Economics link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Equities link-chevron Created with Sketch.
Analysts
Analysts
Help and Support
Help and Support
In the loop 30 October 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.68/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.67/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the THB (+0.3%), PLN (+0.1%) and ZAR (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-1.2%), BRL (-0.9%) and CLP (-0.8%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
 
  • UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves is due to deliver the UK Budget later today.
  • There is likely to be an overhaul of the UK’s fiscal rules to make room for borrow to invest.
  • Reeves is expected to raise taxes.
 
  • The Eurozone GDP for Q3:24 is due out today; GDP is expected to come in at 0.2% q/q in Q3:24, matching the increase in Q2:24.
  • Survey data has been flagging risks to the downside.
  • Several countries’ GDP growth data releases for Q3:24 are also due out today.
  • Investors will likely keep an eye on GDP data out of Germany, Italy and Spain.
  • Germany is likely to remain the weakest link amongst the Eurozone economies.
 
  • The US Q3:24 GDP is in the spotlight today; GDP growth is expected at 2.9% q/q in Q3:24, from 3.0% q/q in Q2:24.
  • Consumer spending is once again expected to have supported growth in Q3:24; business investment could surprise to the upside in Q3:24.
  • Business investment in equipment likely contributed positively to growth in Q3:24.
  • The US private sector ADP employment report for October is due out today.
  • Private payrolls are likely to have increased by 111k in October, after an increase of 143k in September.
  • Investors are also keeping an eye on the non-farm payrolls (NFP) for October, due out on Friday, which likely increased, by 110k, following an increase of 154k in September.
 
  • Locally, the SA Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) to be tabled in parliament will be in the spotlight today.
  • We expect the MTBPS to reflect continuity from this year’s Budget (in February), particularly in terms of the stated strategy to pursue primary budget surpluses to stabilise the government debt-GDP ratio.
  • We expect modest fiscal slippage in the current fiscal year, with revenues likely falling short of Treasury’s latest forecasts.
  • With a fairly steady fiscal prognosis, we expect the emphasis in the MTBPS to be on SA’s fundamental macroeconomic policy direction, in particular the policy reforms driven by Operation Vulindlela.
  • It will also likely focus on interventions to accelerate infrastructure investment, and possibly some guidance on a future fiscal anchor.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and down by 7.2% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 34.8% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $71.48/bbl; ($71.12/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $2781/oz ($2769/oz*).
  • SA CDS 189bps*, Brazil 154bps* and Turkey 270bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.25%*, German bund at 2.33%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.35%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.40%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

Key events and data:

  • 12h00: Eurozone consumer and economic confidence (October), GDP (Q2:24)
  • 13h00: US MBA mortgage applications (25 October)
  • 14h00: SA Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement
  • 14h00: SA month budget balance (September)
  • 14h15: US ADP employment change
  • 14h30: UK Budget
  • 14h30: US GDP (Q3:24)
 

Read PDF