In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is weaker this morning, at R16.90/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.88/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+1.4%) was the biggest gainer; the CLP (-3.4%), ZAR (-1.3%) and PLN (-1.3%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are down, while the Hang Seng is up.   

• Several Fed policymakers commented on monetary policy yesterday and pushed back against the notion that the tightening cycle might be nearing an end. 
• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said that authorities still have a lot to do to tame inflation.
• Kashkari added that inflation might not be tamed without incurring a recession. 
• Kansas Fed President Esther George said that the pace of future rate hikes would be further debated. 
• Fed Presidents Mary Daly and James Bullard both favour a 75 bps increase at the September FOMC meeting.
• Daly also noted that the Fed funds rate should be "a little" above 3% by year-end.

• Japan’s inflation increased to 2.6% y/y July, from 2.4% y/y in June. 
• Prices, excluding fresh food, rose to 2.4% y/y in July, from 2.2% y/y in June.
• CPI remains well above the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) 2% inflation target and complicates Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's case for keeping rates ultra-low. 
• Kuroda has repeatedly noted that current commodity-driven inflation should be temporary.
• He also noted that stronger wage gains would be needed for the positive growth cycle sought by the central bank. 

• UK retail sales for July are scheduled for release today and are expected to have fallen by 0.2% m/m, from a decline of 0.1% m/m in June.
• Spending is expected to remain under pressure given the squeeze on real incomes.

• Locally, it’s a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.

• Brent crude oil is down this morning, and up by 23.6% year-to-date.
• The gold price is down this morning, and down by 4.1% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $96.17/bbl; ($96.59/bbl*).
• Gold is at $1753/oz ($1757/oz*).
• SA CDS 271bps*, Brazil 253bps* and Turkey 774bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 2.88%*, German bund at 1.10%* and SA 10-year generic at 10.65%*, SA’s R186 at 8.76%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

 Key events and data: 

• 08h00: UK retail sales (July)
• 10h00: Eurozone current account (June)

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