In the loop 14 April 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.41/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R16.43/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the HUF (+3.6%), COP (+1.3%) and ARS (+1.2%) were the biggest gainers; the INR (-0.7%), PHP (-0.3%) and MYR (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Iran war: the US military yesterday formally began enforcing a naval blockade on all Iranian ports and coastal areas, following the collapse of ceasefire talks over the weekend.
The blockade applies to vessels of all nations entering or leaving Iranian ports, while allowing continued transit through the Strait of Hormuz for ships traveling between non-Iranian ports.
President Trump has issued stark warnings that any Iranian naval vessels approaching US forces would be “eliminated”.

IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva noted that global prices are likely to take time to return to levels seen before the US-Israeli war with Iran, even if a ceasefire holds.
She noted that adjustment would be gradual, particularly in regions facing greater disruption.
She commented that policymakers must remain mindful of the asymmetric nature of the Iran shock.
Georgieva added that the IMF is likely to downgrade its growth forecasts, with the extent of the revision depending on the duration of the conflict and how quickly production can recover to pre-war levels.
The IMF will release its April World Economic Outlook later today.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee has said that the economic impact of the Iran conflict on the US would depend largely on how long the war persists.
He noted that if oil prices remained in the $90–100/bbl range for an extended period, the FOMC would need to incorporate that into calculations.
While higher prices could encourage greater investment in energy production, they may also weaken consumer sentiment.
Goolsbee cautioned that a deterioration in consumer confidence would not be surprising under such conditions.

The US NFIB small business optimism index for March is due for release today.
The optimism index is likely to have slipped to 97.9 in March, from 98.8 in February.
PPI for March is also on the cards today and is expected at 4.6% y/y, up from 3.4% y/y in February.
On a m/m basis, PPI is likely to have increased by 0.4% in March, after having increased by 0.5% in February.

Locally, mining production for February is scheduled for release today.
Mining production rose 2.9% m/m and 4.6% y/y in January.
Platinum production volumes were 10.8% y/y higher in January; gold production rose 0.7% y/y in January.

In his weekly newsletter, President Cyril Ramaphosa said that the strong outcome of SA's sixth Investment Conference reflected renewed confidence in the SA economy.
The investment conference secured a record R890bn in pledges.
The president noted that a significant share of the commitments came from local companies.
He argued that domestic investors are best placed to judge conditions on the ground, and that their willingness to invest sends a positive signal to international markets.
Ramaphosa highlighted that investment is flowing into priority sectors such as mining, agro-processing, tourism, renewable energy, the green economy, and the digital economy.
These sectors are central to growth and job creation.
He added that the SA government now aims to mobilise R3 trillion in new investment over the next five years.

Brent crude oil is currently at $97.98/bbl; ($99.36/bbl*).
Gold is at $4762/oz ($4740/oz*).
SA CDS 153bps*, Brazil 126bps* and Turkey 239bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.27%*, German bund at 3.09%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.69%*, SA's R2035 at 8,52%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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