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Standard Bank Group
South Africa 08 August 2024

Monthly Electricity Tracker

Shireen Darmalingam

  • Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) was at 52.6% in Q1:24 and improved to an average of 61.29% in Q2:24. The third quarter saw a more significant increase in the EAF, to more than 70% last week (and the first time since mid-2020), which should support an ongoing recovery in economic activity. The EAF in 2024 thus far is at an average of 58.3% This is above the average of 54.7% in 2023. Eskom commented this week that the improvement in the EAF is largely on the back of a decline in unplanned outages. Six generating units (Kusile, Lethabo, Majuba, Tutuka, Matla, and Medupi) recorded an EAF above 70%, while three others achieved an EAF above 60%. Eskom noted that 5 of these generating units were included on the priority list of Eskom’s Generation Recovery Plan. Eskom highlighted that an EAF of 70% equates to around 33,180 MW available generation capacity. This compares with the average daily available generation capacity of 23,700 MW since April 2023.
  • The unplanned outage factor (ratio of energy losses over a given time to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time) was at 30.57% in Q1:24 and has dropped to 27.14% in Q2:24 and 23.65% in Q3:24 thus far. It is currently at 20%, a level last seen in 2021. Current unplanned outages have averaged between 9,800 MW and 12,400 MY since the start of Eskom’s current financial year. The planned outage factor (planned maintenance) is just above 8% in the quarter to date, down from an average of 11% in Q2:24.
  • The decrease in the level of loadshedding by several stages earlier this year, and the suspension of loadshedding since 26 March, came on the back of a combination of factors, including an increase in private-sector electricity self-generation capacity. Lower levels of unplanned outages have contributed significantly to the improvement of the grid and the suspension of loadshedding four-and-a-half months ago.
  • SA has experienced a total of 1,656 hours loadshedding thus far in 2024. This translates into 69 full days of loadshedding this year. There were 289 full days of loadshedding in 2023.
  • SA has experienced cumulative loadshedding of 2,786 GWh in the year to date. It was a cumulative 12,109 GWh in the comparable period in 2023. Several Eskom units have returned to commercial operation and will continue to help alleviate loadshedding pressure this year. Eskom has noted that the ongoing improvements to its generation performance over the past months have allowed it to reduce loadshedding significantly. As such, loadshedding has been suspended now for 135 consecutive days. We expect economic growth at 1.1% in 2024, with growth picking up more materially in H2:24 and supported by the return to commercial operation of the abovementioned generating units and increased self-generation. However, risks to the growth outlook remain to the downside, should flare-ups of loadshedding recur while Eskom’s fleet remains unreliable.
 

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