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In the loop 19 November 2021

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R15.63/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R15.61/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the HUF (+0.5%), RON (+0.4%) and THB (+0.4%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the TRY (-3.8%), BRL (-0.8%) and RUB (-0.7%) were amongst the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.
  • Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic has brought forward his projections, calling for Fed hikes to start next summer
  • Bostic said that the US labour market should recover to pre-pandemic levels by then.
  • It would then be appropriate for the Fed to normalise its interest rate policy.
  • New York Fed President John Williams also wants the Fed to speed up its tightening timeline because inflation is showing no sign of easing.
  • Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida may discuss global monetary policy coordination later today.
  • UK retail sales likely increased by 0.5% m/m in October, from a decline of 0.3% m/m in September.
  • Consumer spending disappointed in Q3:21 due to supply disruptions.
  • However, the lifting of containment measures in the hospitality sector could see a pickup in spending. 
  • Retail stores in city centres may benefit from people having returned to the office. 
  • Households are also likely to have brought forward Christmas shopping to October and November. 
  • However, with a squeeze on income and the threat of interest rate hikes, spending on big ticket items is likely to remain subdued.
  • SA has the 18th highest caseload, at 2.927 million; 585 new cases were reported yesterday.
  • Active cases are at 17,331; the Western Cape leads the way, with 6,195 active cases, followed by KwaZulu-Natal with 3,106.
  • Covid-19 deaths rose by 40 yesterday, to 89,555; 2.82 million people (or 96.3%) have recovered from the virus.
  • 18.03 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 34,529 tests were conducted yesterday.
  • The SA positivity rate is 1.7%.
  • 24.471 million vaccines have been administered in SA to date; 125,868 vaccines were administered yesterday.
  • Brent crude oil is up this morning, and up by 57.7% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and down by 1.9% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $81.71/bbl; ($81.24/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $1862/oz ($1860/oz*).
  • SA CDS 201bps*, lower than Brazil 240bps* and Turkey 448bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 1.59%*, German bund at -0.275%* and SA 10-year generic at 9.87%*, SA’s R186 at 7.96%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 09h00: UK retail sales (October)
  • 11h00: Eurozone current account (September)
  • SA: Moody’s and S&P sovereign review

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