In the loop 19 November 2021

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is weaker this morning, at R15.63/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R15.61/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the HUF (+0.5%), RON (+0.4%) and THB (+0.4%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the TRY (-3.8%), BRL (-0.8%) and RUB (-0.7%) were amongst the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic has brought forward his projections, calling for Fed hikes to start next summer.
Bostic said that the US labour market should recover to pre-pandemic levels by then.
It would then be appropriate for the Fed to normalise its interest rate policy.
New York Fed President John Williams also wants the Fed to speed up its tightening timeline because inflation is showing no sign of easing.
Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida may discuss global monetary policy coordination later today.

UK retail sales likely increased by 0.5% m/m in October, from a decline of 0.3% m/m in September.
Consumer spending disappointed in Q3:21 due to supply disruptions.
However, the lifting of containment measures in the hospitality sector could see a pickup in spending.
Retail stores in city centres may benefit from people having returned to the office.
Households are also likely to have brought forward Christmas shopping to October and November.
However, with a squeeze on income and the threat of interest rate hikes, spending on big ticket items is likely to remain subdued.

SA has the 18th highest caseload, at 2.927 million; 585 new cases were reported yesterday.
Active cases are at 17,331; the Western Cape leads the way, with 6,195 active cases, followed by KwaZulu-Natal with 3,106.
Covid-19 deaths rose by 40 yesterday, to 89,555; 2.82 million people (or 96.3%) have recovered from the virus.
18.03 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 34,529 tests were conducted yesterday.
The SA positivity rate is 1.7%.
24.471 million vaccines have been administered in SA to date; 125,868 vaccines were administered yesterday.

Brent crude oil is currently at $81.71/bbl; ($81.24/bbl*).
Gold is at $1862/oz ($1860/oz*).
SA CDS 201bps*, lower than Brazil 240bps* and Turkey 448bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 1.59%*, German bund at -0.275%* and SA 10-year generic at 9.87%*, SA’s R186 at 7.96%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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