In the loop
What you should know this morning:
- The rand is weaker this morning, at R15.63/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R15.61/$*).
- EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the HUF (+0.5%), RON (+0.4%) and THB (+0.4%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the TRY (-3.8%), BRL (-0.8%) and RUB (-0.7%) were amongst the biggest losers.
- Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.
- Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic has brought forward his projections, calling for Fed hikes to start next summer.
- Bostic said that the US labour market should recover to pre-pandemic levels by then.
- It would then be appropriate for the Fed to normalise its interest rate policy.
- New York Fed President John Williams also wants the Fed to speed up its tightening timeline because inflation is showing no sign of easing.
- Fed Vice Chair Richard Clarida may discuss global monetary policy coordination later today.
- UK retail sales likely increased by 0.5% m/m in October, from a decline of 0.3% m/m in September.
- Consumer spending disappointed in Q3:21 due to supply disruptions.
- However, the lifting of containment measures in the hospitality sector could see a pickup in spending.
- Retail stores in city centres may benefit from people having returned to the office.
- Households are also likely to have brought forward Christmas shopping to October and November.
- However, with a squeeze on income and the threat of interest rate hikes, spending on big ticket items is likely to remain subdued.
- SA has the 18th highest caseload, at 2.927 million; 585 new cases were reported yesterday.
- Active cases are at 17,331; the Western Cape leads the way, with 6,195 active cases, followed by KwaZulu-Natal with 3,106.
- Covid-19 deaths rose by 40 yesterday, to 89,555; 2.82 million people (or 96.3%) have recovered from the virus.
- 18.03 million tests have been conducted since 5 March 2020; 34,529 tests were conducted yesterday.
- The SA positivity rate is 1.7%.
- 24.471 million vaccines have been administered in SA to date; 125,868 vaccines were administered yesterday.
- Brent crude oil is up this morning, and up by 57.7% year-to-date.
- The gold price is up this morning, and down by 1.9% year-to-date.
- Brent crude oil is currently at $81.71/bbl; ($81.24/bbl*).
- Gold is at $1862/oz ($1860/oz*).
- SA CDS 201bps*, lower than Brazil 240bps* and Turkey 448bps*.
- Yields: US 10yr at 1.59%*, German bund at -0.275%* and SA 10-year generic at 9.87%*, SA’s R186 at 7.96%*.
* Denotes yesterday’s close.
Key events and data:
- 09h00: UK retail sales (October)
- 11h00: Eurozone current account (September)
- SA: Moody’s and S&P sovereign review