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Closing the loop 22 November 2021

Closing the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

Market highlights:

  • The rand is weaker, at R15.78/$ (R15.72/$*) today; it ranged between R15.69/$ and R15.83/$.
  • The currency is above its 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages (R15.01/$, R14.80/$ and R14.59/$ respectively).
  • EM currencies were mixed today; the CLP (+2.5%), BRL (+0.6%) and COP (+0.3%) were amongst the biggest gainers; the RUB (-1.9%), HUF (-1.0%) and MXN (-0.6%) were amongst the biggest losers.
  • The WHO has noted that it is time for a “legal and societal debate” over the introduction of vaccine mandates.
  • German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that the latest surge in infections is the worst that Germany has experienced and is concerned that hospitals would soon be overwhelmed.
  • The Eurozone’s consumer confidence, due later today, is expected to fall further in November to -5.5 pts from -4.8 pts in October.
  • Confidence has been slipping amid fears of the Delta variant spreading across the bloc.
  • Several PMI reports are due out tomorrow; the survey data is expected to provide some clues on the economic impact of rising Covid infections.
  • The UK November manufacturing and services PMI are expected to have slipped.
  • The EU PMI reports are also likely to have deteriorated in November, albeit remaining above the 50-benchmark line.
  • The US manufacturing and services PMI data for November are both expected to have increased.
  • The manufacturing PMI is expected to have increased to 59.2 pts in November from 58.4 pts in October; the services PMI is expected at 59.0 pts in November from 58.7 pts in October.
  • Locally, the SARB’s leading indicator for September is scheduled for release tomorrow; the index increased to 127.9 pts in August from 127 pts in August.
  • The oil price is up marginally today, and up by 52.4% in the year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down by 1.5% today, and down by 4.2% in the year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is at $78.94/bbl; ($78.89/bbl*).
  • Gold price is at $1818/oz ($1845/oz*).
  • SA CDS is at 208bps (205bps), lower than Brazil 237bps (238bps*) and Turkey 439bps (446bps*).
  • Yields: US 10yr at 1.57% (1.54%*), German bund at -0.332% (-0.342%*) and SA 10-year generic at 10.0% (9.89%*), SA’s R186 is at 8.03% (7.97%*).
  • The JSE ALSI is up by 0.5% today (-0.7%*).

* Denotes Friday’s close. 

Key events and data:

  • 09h00: SA leading indicator (September)
  • 11h00: Eurozone Markit manufacturing, services and composite PMI (November)
  • 11h30: UK Markit manufacturing, services and composite PMI (November)
  • 16h45: US Markit manufacturing, services and composite PMI (November)

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