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In the loop 15 July 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.88/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.91/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the THB (+0.4%) and ZAR (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-1.4%), CLP (-0.9%) and MXN (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are up, while the Shanghai Composite is down.
 
  • China’s GDP growth came in higher than expected in Q2:25, at 5.2% y/y, from 5.4% y/y in Q1:25.
  • Stronger exports to markets outside of the US masked the pressure caused by weaker consumer demand in China.
  • Industrial output increased by 6.8% y/y in June, from 5.8% y/y in May.
  • Retail sales increased by 4.8%y/y in June, from 6.4% y/y in May.
  • China’s home prices declined further in June.
  • The government is expected to continue with efforts to boost consumption.
 
  • President Trump yesterday commented that his tariff letters “are the deals” and “there are no deals to make".
  • However, he also stated that he is open to talks with trading partners, including the EU, but noting that the EU would like to do “a different kind of deal”.
  • This follows the announcement of the 30% tariff over the weekend.
  • EU chief trade negotiator Maros Sefcovic has said that Trump's proposed duty is "effectively prohibitive" to transatlantic trade and that the EU must prepare for all outcomes.
  • The EU is readying a €72bn (£62.4bn) package of retaliatory tariffs against the US, even as discussions continue.
  • President Trump also threatened severe tariffs on Russia if it does not end its war with Ukraine,
 
  • The US June CPI will be in focus today and is likely to come in at 2.6% y/y, from 2.4% y/y in May.
  • On a m/m basis, headline CPI is likely to have increased by 0.3% in June, after having increased by 0.1% in May.
  • Core CPI is expected at 2.9% y/y in June, from a 2.8% y/y increase in May.
  • The Fed will keep an eye on the data for larger tariff-related price increases that may occur over the summer.
  • The US Empire manufacturing survey for July is due out today; the index is expected to increase, to -9.6 in July, from -16.0 in June.
  • Despite the expected improvement, the data will likely signal that activity has continued to contract, but at a slower pace than June.
 
  • Locally, mining production for May is due out today; production declined by 7.7% y/y in April.
  • Mining production increased by 0.6% m/m in April.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 7.5% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 28.2% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $69.07/bbl; ($69.21/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $3363/oz ($3343/oz*).
  • SA CDS 196bps*, Brazil 149bps* and Turkey 289bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.43%*, German bund at 2.72%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.97%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.89%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 11h00: Eurozone ZEW survey expectations (July), industrial production (May)
  • 11h30: SA mining production (May)
  • 14h30: US Empire manufacturing (July), CPI (June), real average hourly earnings (June)
 

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