In the loop
Shireen Darmalingam
What you should know this morning:
- The rand is stronger this morning, at R18.06/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R18.11/$*).
- EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the IDR (+0.3%), THB (+0.2%) and PHP (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the RUB (-3.0%), CLP (-1.2%) and HUF (-0.8%) were the biggest losers.
- Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Hang Seng is down.
- Central bank watch: the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is likely to deliver another large interest rate cut on Wednesday as it seeks to arrest the downturn in this economy.
- The Central Bank of Sri Lanka is also likely to cut its benchmark interest rate on Wednesday.
- The Bank of Korea is largely expected to keep interest rates on hold on Thursday.
- The Central Bank of Nigeria is set to hike rates to contain inflationary pressures.
- China’s industrial profits, due on Wednesday, likely fell at a faster pace in the first 10 months of the year.
- Eurozone inflation for October, due on Friday, likely increased to above the ECB’s 2% inflation target in November.
- CPI is expected to come in at 2.2% y/y in November, on the back of higher fuel costs, from 2.0% y/y in October.
- The ECB’s October report on monetary developments in the region is due on Thursday.
- The credit impulse for households and non-financial corporations rose to 0.5% of GDP in September, from 0.0% in August.
- Several countries’ GDP data releases for Q3:24 are on the cards this week.
- UK mortgage approvals are scheduled for release on Friday.
- Uncertainty ahead of the 30 October budget may have led some potential buyers to delay applying for a mortgage.
- The US Conference Board consumer confidence index for November, due out tomorrow, likely improved to 111.8, from 108.7 in October.
- US new homes sales for October are also due out tomorrow; a decline is expected in October, following September’s surge as mortgage rates rose last month.
- The US Q3:24 GDP (second estimate), out on Wednesday, is expected to come in at 2.8% q/q in Q3:24, unchanged from the previous estimate, and from 3.0% q/q in Q2:24.
- Investors will keep an eye on the US FOMC meeting minutes of the 6-7 November policy meeting on Wednesday.
- Policymakers cut the Fed funds rate by 25 bps in a move widely expected.
- Personal income and spending for October are also scheduled for release on Wednesday.
- Fed will keep an eye on the core PCE deflator, which is expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m in October, following a 0.2% m/m increase in September.
- Durable goods orders for October, due on Thursday, are expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m in October, following a 0.7% m/m decline in September.
- Durable goods excluding transportation likely moderated slightly in October.
- Locally, the SARB’s leading indicator for September is scheduled for release tomorrow; the index slipped to 112.8 in August.
- The October PPI is on the cards on Thursday and is expected at -0.2% y/y, from 1.0% y/y in September.
- The M3 and private sector credit extension (PSCE) for October are due out on Friday.
- PSCE is likely to come in at 4.8% y/y in October, from 4.63% y/y in September.
- The October trade balance is scheduled for release on Thursday; a trade surplus of R3.3bn is expected, from R12.8bn in September.
- The monthly Budget balance data for October is also on the cards on Friday; the budget deficit came in at R4.4bn in September.
- Brent crude is down this morning, and down by 3.0% year-to-date.
- The gold price is down this morning, and up by 29.5% year-to-date.
- Brent crude oil is currently at $74.74/bbl; ($75.17/bbl*).
- Gold is at $2672/oz ($2716/oz*).
- SA CDS 187bps*, Brazil 154bps* and Turkey 259bps*.
- Yields: US 10yr at 4.35%*, German bund at 2.24%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.13%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.16%*.
* Denotes Friday’s close.
Key events and data:
- No economic data releases.
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