In the loop

What you should know this morning:

• The rand is weaker this morning, at R17.85/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.79/$*).
• EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the BRL (+1.4%), HUF (+1.1%) and PLN (+1.0%) were the biggest gainers; the ZAR (-0.2%), RUB (-0.1%) and TRY (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
• Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

• BOE Governor Andrew Bailey has noted growing signs of a slowdown in the UK labour market.
• Employers have been responding to higher national insurance contributions (NICs) by cutting hiring and implementing weaker pay increases.
• Bailey noted that “the latest data on pay settlements and pay expectations point to a significant decline in wage growth in the year ahead”.

• The EU has indicated that it is considering lowering tariffs on a range of US imports in a bid to reach a trade deal with President Trump.
• EU officials are rushing to reach a deal on key sectors that are struggling because of Trump's existing tariffs. 
• Whether a trade deal can be reached may depend on whether Trump can claim that he has scored a win.

• Eurozone consumer and economic confidence data for June will be released today.
• Consumer confidence (final estimate for June) is largely expected to come in unchanged, at -15.3, from -15.1 in May.
• Economic confidence is also expected to have remained steady in June, at 94.8.
• Confidence in the industrial and services sectors too should have improved in June.

• Boston Fed President Susan Collins yesterday remarked that the July might be too soon for the FOMC to trim borrowing costs further.
• Collins nonetheless thinks that the Fed will likely cut rates once more this year.
• She noted that she would want to see more information than just one more month of data before the July FOMC meeting.
• Fed policymakers still foresee two rate cuts this year, according to the median projection.
• However, there is division amongst policymakers.
• Seven officials on the committee currently forecast no cuts at all this year, and 10 expect at least two later this year.

• President Trump has commented that the USs and China have signed a trade truce, following negotiations two weeks ago.
• He noted that Washington and Beijing have “agreed to an additional understanding for a framework to implement the Geneva agreement”.

• US personal income and spending for May are scheduled for release today.
• The core PCE deflator is expected to have increased by 0.1% m/m in May, matching April’s increase.
• The Fed will likely keep a close eye on the data for signs of inflation pressure.

• Locally, it’s a quiet day as far as data releases are concerned.

• Brent crude is up this morning, and down by 8.6% year-to-date.
• The gold price is down this morning, and up by 25.5% year-to-date.

• Brent crude oil is currently at $68.19/bbl; ($67.73/bbl*).
• Gold is at $3295/oz ($3327/oz*).
• SA CDS 191bps*, Brazil 153bps* and Turkey 305bps*.
• Yields: US 10yr at 4.24%*, German bund at 2.56%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.0%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.94%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data: 

• 11h00: Eurozone consumer and economic confidence (June)
• 14h30: US personal income and spending (May)
• 16h00: US University of Michigan sentiment, 1 yr and 5-10 yr inflation expectation (June - final) 

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