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Standard Bank Group
South Africa 08 May 2024

Electricity Tracker

Shireen Darmalingam

  • This monthly report tracks power utility Eskom’s ability to supply power to the grid, the demand for electricity, and the consumption of electricity – to gauge the likely impact on economic activity. It reviews Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) as well as how unplanned outages are affecting power supply in SA.
  • The EAF was at 52.6% in Q1:24 and improved to an average of 58.3% in Q2:24 to date, which should support an ongoing recovery in economic activity. This is above the average of 54.8% in 2023. However, it remains well below the utility’s near-term target of 65% (and longer-term target of 75%). SA’s Electricity Minister recently expressed his confidence of Eskom achieving the 65% EAF target by the end of the current financial year and being on target to achieve 75% by the end of March next year.
  • The EAF improved steadily over the course of 2023, from below 50% at the beginning of that year to a high of just over 60%. This can be attributed partly to fewer unplanned and planned outages. The unplanned outage factor (ratio of energy losses over a given time to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time period) was at 30.46% in Q1:24 and 29.85% in Q2:24 thus far, compared to an average of 30.35% in Q4:23. The planned outage factor (planned maintenance) is around 11.37% in the quarter to date, down from a peak of close to 18.9% at the beginning of 2024.
  • The decrease in the level of loadshedding by several stages earlier in the year, and the recent suspension of loadshedding, came on the back of a combination of factors, including an increase in the imports of lithium-ion batteries and solar panels, which supports our view that private-sector electricity storage and self-generation capacity are growing rapidly. Lower levels of unplanned and planned outages have also contributed to a decline in the level of loadshedding, against earlier expectations.
  • SA has experienced a total of 1,656 hours loadshedding thus far in 2024. This translates into 69 full days of loadshedding this year. There were 289 full days of loadshedding in 2023.
  • SA has experienced cumulative loadshedding of 2,725 GWh thus far in 2024. It was a cumulative 7,685 GWh in the comparable period in 2023. Several Eskom units have returned to commercial operation and will continue to help alleviate loadshedding pressure this year. Eskom has noted that the ongoing improvements to its generation performance over the past months have allowed it to reduce loadshedding significantly. As such, loadshedding has been suspended for 43 consecutive days. We expect economic growth at 1.2% in 2024, supported by the return to commercial operation of several Eskom generating units and increased self-generation. However, risks to the growth outlook remain to the downside, should flare-ups occur.

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