In the loop 15 April 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is unchanged this morning, at R16.35/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.35/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+0.8%), CLP (+0.7%) and PLN (+0.7%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-0.8%), PEN (-0.6%) and IDR (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Iran war: the US continued to enforce its naval blockade of Iranian ports yesterday.
Iran rejected this US move, warning that the security of ports across the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman would be jeopardised if Iranian shipping remained blocked.
Despite the blockade, limited commercial traffic continued through the Strait of Hormuz, underscoring the difficulty of fully sealing this key energy corridor.

ECB President Christine Lagarde yesterday noted that the region's economy had weakened beyond the ECB's baseline projections.
This reflects the drag from higher energy costs and rising geopolitical uncertainty due to the Iran conflict.
Lagarde noted that conditions were now worse than the central bank's base case outlook.
However, it has not yet deteriorated to the more severe adverse scenario outlined by the ECB.
In her assessment, the economy was sitting “between the baseline and the adverse” case, implying softer growth, and pressure on household income and business confidence.
She noted that this creates a more challenging policy environment for the ECB.
Lagarde also stressed that the Governing Council had not predetermined any interest rate path.

ECB Governing Council Gabriel Makhlouf yesterday remarked that the ECB may need to take forceful action if the current shock persists and creates broader inflation pressures.
He commented that policymakers were watching whether higher energy costs begin feeding into wages, pricing, and inflation expectations.
This may require a stronger response from the ECB to maintain price stability, while still weighing risks to economic growth.
He added that the central bank must “calibrate our response in a way that we don't make the problem worse”.

The US Empire manufacturing index, scheduled for release today, is projected to have improved slightly in April, to 0.0, from -0.2 in March.
The index had peaked at 13.5 in November, then dropped to below zero in December last year.
The NAHB housing market index is expected to have edged lower in April, to 37, from 38 in March, reflecting mounting pressure on housing demand.
Higher mortgage rates and elevated uncertainty are weighing on buyer activity and contributing to softer builder sentiment.
The US Fed Beige Book is also on the cards today and is likely to highlight elevated uncertainty amid the Iran war.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) sharply revised its outlook for the global oil market, warning that the war in Iran has triggered an unprecedented supply shock that is likely to keep markets tight through much of 2026.
The IEA said oil production disruptions linked to the conflict and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz have removed more than 10 million barrels per day of supply at their peak.
This has forced Gulf producers to shut output, disrupting refined product exports.
As a result, the agency cut its oil demand growth forecast for 2026, citing higher prices, widespread flight cancellations, and weaker economic momentum.
It also warned that supply losses may intensify if shipping through Hormuz does not normalise.

Brent crude oil is currently at $95.62/bbl; ($94.79/bbl*).
Gold is at $4826/oz ($4841/oz*).
SA CDS 148bps*, Brazil 122bps* and Turkey 231bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.24%*, German bund at 3.02%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.57%*, SA's R2035 at 8.40%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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