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In the loop 04 June 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R18.55/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R18.51/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the CLP (+1.7%), ZAR (+1.5%) and RUB (+1.2%) were the biggest gainers; the MXN (-4.0%), PHP (-0.3%) and ARS (-0.1%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Shanghai Composite are down, while the Hang Seng is up.
  • The US Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) job openings for April are likely to have fallen further.
  • The April JOLTS print should show openings down modestly, to 8.36 million, from 8.488 million in March.
  • The data comes ahead of the ADP private sector employment report, due out tomorrow.
  • Private payrolls are likely to have increased by 175k in May, following a 192k increase in April.
  • The non-farm payrolls (NFP) for May are also due out this week and likely increased, by 190k, following an increase of 175k in April.
  • The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged in May, at 3.9%.
  • US factory orders for April are also due out today; factory orders are likely to have increased by 0.6% m/m in May, after having increased by 0.8% m/m in April.
  • UK retail sales increased by 0.4% y/y in May, after having declined by 4.4% y/y in April, according to the British Retail Consortium (BRC).
  • The BRC noted that food sales boosted overall sales, while non-food sales were down on a year-on-year basis.
  • Warmer weather supported the increase in May and together with the summer holidays could see sales increase further in the coming months.
  • The increase points to some recovery in the sector.
  • Locally, Naamsa vehicle sales declined by 14.2% y/y in May, after increasing by 2.2% y/y in April.
  • 37,105 vehicles were sold in May; 43,242 vehicles were sold in May 2023 and 38,062 in April 2024.
  • 24,367 passenger cars were sold in May, from 27,579 sold in May 2023; 10,334 light commercial vehicles were sold, down from 12,832 in May 2023.
  • Vehicle exports were down by 19.1% y/y, to 24,235 units in May, compared with 29,947 units in May 2023. 
  • GDP for Q1:24 is in the spotlight today and is expected at 0.2% q/q (sa), from an increase of 0.1% q/q (sa) in Q4:23.
  • On a y/y basis, GDP growth is expected at 0.8% in Q1:24, from 1.2% in Q4:23.
  • Eskom: loadshedding remains suspended until further notice.
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 0.9% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 13.9% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $77.76/bbl; ($78.36/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $2348/oz ($2349/oz*).
  • SA CDS 233bps*, Brazil 140bps* and Turkey 256bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.38%*, German bund at 2.58%*, SA 10-year generic at 11.92%*, SA’s R2030 at 10.57%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

  • 11h30: SA GDP (Q1:24)
  • 16h00: US JOLTS job openings (April), factory orders (April), durable goods orders (April)

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