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In the loop 24 October 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.78/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R17.80/$*).
  • EM currencies were largely down yesterday; the ZAR (-1.5%), COP (-1.2%) and HUF (-1.0%) were the biggest losers; the CLP was up by 0.1%.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is up, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
 
  • Several ECB policymakers commented on the Eurozone economy and monetary policy yesterday.
  • ECB Governing Council member Jose Luis Escriva said that upside and downside risks to the ECB 2% inflation target are about equal.
  • Escriva added that the ECB would analyse all incoming data in the lead up to policy meetings; policy decisions will remain data-dependent.
  • ECB President Christine Lagarde last week noted downside risks to inflation as slightly outweighing upside risks.
  • Several policymakers have this week warned of inflation possibly undershooting the ECB’s 2% target.
 
  • The US, UK and Eurozone flash PMI data for October will be released today. 
  • These indices will provide an indication of whether economic activity continued to strengthen into the final quarter of the year.
  • The UK composite PMI is expected to have slipped, albeit only marginally, to 52.5 in October, from 52.6 in September.
  • Both the manufacturing and services PMIs are expected to have remained steady in October.
  • The Eurozone composite PMI is expected to have improved in October but remaining in contraction.
  • The composite index is expected to have increased to 49.7 in October, from 49.6 in September; the manufacturing and services PMIS are also likely to have increased in October.
  • The US composite PMI is likely to have slipped further in October; the manufacturing PMI is likely to have improved, while the services PMI is expected to have slipped.
 
  • The US Fed’s Beige Book for September showed little growth across most of the districts in September.
  • Most districts reported “slight or modest” growth in employment; several districts said that prices rose at a “slight or modest pace”.
  • The report highlighted consumer spending as mixed in September, and noted “shifts in the composition of purchases, mostly toward less expensive alternatives”.
 
  • Locally, it’s a quiet day.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and down by 1.5% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 32.2% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $75.85/bbl; ($74.96/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $2728/oz ($2719/oz*).
  • SA CDS 189bps*, Brazil 159bps* and Turkey 276bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.24%*, German bund at 2.30%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.69%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.75%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

Key events and data:

  • 08h00: Japan machine tool order (September – final)
  • 10h00: Eurozone HCOB manufacturing, services and composite PMI (October)
  • 10h30: UK S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite PMI (October)
  • 14h30: US initial jobless claims (19 October)
  • 15h45: US S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite PMI (October)
  • 16h00: US new home sales (September)
 

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