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In the loop 30 July 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R18.43/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R18.46/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the BRL (+0.7%), MYR (+0.5%) and KRW (+0.1%) were the biggest gainers; the MXN (-1.3%), COP (-1.0%) and ZAR (-1.0%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.
 
  • Japan’s unemployment rate fell to 2.5% in June, from 2.6% in May; this marked the first improvement in five months.
  • The number of unemployed fell 3.3% (sa), to 1.76 million, in June.
  • The total number of people employed increased to 68.22 million in June, the highest number since comparable records began in 1953.
 
  • The Eurozone GDP for Q2:24 is due out today; GDP is expected to come in at 0.3% q/q in Q2:24, matching the increase in Q1:24.
  • Consumer spending, as inflation moderates, is likely to have supported economic activity in Q2:24.
  • The recent interest rate cut has also helped to lift sentiment.
  • The ECB is expected to cut rates further this year, which should aid in ensuring that growth momentum is sustained over the rest of this year.
  • Several countries’ GDP growth data releases for Q2:24 are also due out today.
  • Investors will likely keep an eye on GDP data out of Germany, Italy and Spain.
 
  • The Eurozone’s consumer and economic confidence indices are also in the spotlight today.
  • Consumer confidence for July improved, albeit still well in negative territory, to -13.0, from -14.0 in June; the final estimate for July is due out today.
  • Economic confidence is expected to have slipped slightly in July, to 6.3, from 6.5 in in June.
 
  • The US consumer confidence index for July likely slipped to 99.5, from 100.4 in June. 
  • This measure of consumer confidence focuses mostly on jobs and incomes.
  • The Job Openings and Labour Turnover Survey (JOLTS) job openings for June, also on the cards today, are likely to have fallen further.
  • The June JOLTS print should slow down modestly, to 8.0 million, from 8.140 million in May.
  • The data comes ahead of the non-farm payrolls (NFP) for July, due out on Friday; NFP also expected to have slowed, to 178k, following an increase of 206k in June.
  • The unemployment rate, however, is likely to have remained unchanged, at 4.1%, in July. 
  • The FHFA house price index for May is expected to come in at 0.3% m/m, slightly up from 0.2% m/m in April).
 
  • Locally, the monthly Budget balance data for June is scheduled for release today.
  • The budget balance is likely to have increased to a surplus of R40.1bn in June, from a deficit of R12.8bn in May.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 3.2% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 15.8% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $79.49/bbl; ($79.78/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $2387/oz ($2378/oz*).
  • SA CDS 198bps*, Brazil 156bps* and Turkey 263bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.17%*, German bund at 2.35%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.82%*, SA’s R2030 at 9.48
 

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

  • 11h00: Eurozone consumer and economic confidence (July), GDP (Q2:24)
  • 14h00: SA monthly Budget balance (June)
  • 15h00: US FHFA house price index (May)
  • 16h00: US JOLTS job openings (June), Conference Board consumer confidence index (July)
 

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