COP29 preview

As the climate crisis deepens, Africa must intensify its demand for global governance reform

• As COP29 approaches, we provide an update in this report on the global response to the intensifying climate crisis, situating this within Africa’s growing demand for a more urgent and equitable international response to the same. This report has two distinct parts. In the first section of the report, we discuss the recent evidence regarding the unfolding climate crisis, and its manifold impacts on the planet’s interlocking ecosystems. Following this, we focus on Africa’s intensifying call for greater global governance and economic reform to more appropriately reflect the current global balance of power, and, more specifically, the disproportionate effects of climate change that African countries continue to suffer from. This report has been compiled in partnership with our ESG and Climate Research team.
• Halfway through a decade of climate action. In late 2019, a few months before the pandemic hit, optimism about our collective ability to avoid the worst impacts of climate change was rising. Focus and finance seemed ready to come together to transform the global economy to be more in harmony with nature and the climate. However, as we make clear in this report, this collective commitment continues to fall well short of what is required to prevent the catastrophic consequences of global warming that have been regularly detailed by the IPCC and other organisations.
• Alarmingly, emissions have increased in the first few years of this decade, with the UN Emissions Gap report showing that, if only current policies are implemented, the world is on track for 3.1°C of global warming. This year has already proven to be extremely hot, with the global average temperature over the last 12 months from October 2023 to September 2024 at 1.62°C above pre-industrial levels (using EU Copernicus data). This year is in contention to become the hottest year on record.
• A variety of other data points emphasise the extent of the deepening crisis. In their fifth annual State of the Climate report, researchers assessed 35 planetary vital signs and found that 25 of them reached record levels in 2023. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) released its State of Global Water Resources report which highlights the severe stress that global water resources are under, with 5 consecutive years of below-normal river flows and reservoir inflows. The WMO also published its State of the Climate in Africa report, which finds that African countries are losing on average 2% - 5% of GDP due to climate-related challenges, with many countries diverting up to 9% of their budgets to respond to extreme events. The WMO further estimates that Sub-Saharan Africa’s climate adaptation cost will be $30bn - $50bn per year over the next decade. And the Living Planet Report, a comprehensive overview of the state of the natural world, shows that global wildlife populations have declined by an average of 73% in the past 50 years.
• COP29. The primary themes at COP29 will be the new global climate finance target, the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) that needs to be set; a shift from mitigation to adaptation, both in focus and in terms of capital allocation; and operationalisation of the Loss and Damage Fund. Carbon markets and Article 6 of the Paris Agreement are also on the agenda this year as a fully operationalised Article 6 would provide the basis for better quality carbon markets. Although this has been on the agenda at the last two COPs, there are many sticking points that have blocked its progress. One of the most contested issues is whether avoided emissions can generate carbon credits, with some worrying that this could flood the market with low-quality carbon credits. Another issue is how centralised the market will be. A robust, credible international market for carbon credits could be a powerful tool to tackle climate change.
• However, though new and potentially bolder commitments to tackle climate change will likely be made at COP29, African countries will be justifiably sceptical that these lofty goals that will be met and will adequately support the continent’s ability to adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change. With this in mind, we spend time in this report outlining the global governance and economic reform that African governments have long been demanding – and that support for seems to be mounting. Indeed, the Pact signed following the recent UN Summit of the Future commits, amongst many other matters, to “redress the historical injustice against Africa as a priority”. Specific reforms that African leaders are demanding include the reconstitution of the UN Security Council (providing Africa with two permanent, veto-carrying seats on the body), as well as profound global economic reforms so as to provide fairer and less prejudicial support to African economies in navigating contemporary challenges.
• We argue in this report that it will be up to African states to sustain pressure on global players to implement the reforms that have been committed to. Pressure in this regard will have to be pointed and pronounced in order to capitalise on the momentum that the UN Summit of the Future reflected. Indeed, not only is there momentum for reform, but there are also clear opportunities for African countries to renegotiate their global roles as a result of the fluidity that currently characterises the global geopolitical terrain (as we discussed in prior Africa Thematic notes, see here, here, and here). In essence, in this current interregnum between the prior era of US-led unipolarity and a new, as yet undefined era, there is space for countries across the Global South to play a more direct role in determining the institutional arrangements that will eventually prevail.
• In our view, this pressure can be most effectively sustained if a small cluster of economically and geopolitically influential African countries use their individual and collective clout to amplify the calls for change in the year ahead. Framed by growing discussion over the role and influence of so-called ‘middle powers’ in the current geopolitical environment, we argue that three influential African countries – South Africa (which will soon assume the Presidency of the G20), Kenya, and Egypt - could build a formidable strategic alliance in pressuring for global reform, and specifically the changes relevant for the African continent. This is not to suggest that other countries, including economic powerhouses such as Nigeria, have no role to play. But, rather, that a small and contemporary alliance of these three countries could, in the near-term, aid in extracting meaningful concessions for Africa during a period of pronounced opportunity, risk, and fluidity.
• If not now, when? In sum, in this report, we seek to outline two stark realities. First, that the climate crisis is deepening and the global response to it remains vastly insufficient to meet the targets that have been set, which are crucial to avoiding even more catastrophic future scenarios. And second, that global governance and financial institutions must urgently reform, and specifically provide better and more equitable representation for and support to Africa in order to sustain their credibility in combating climate change and managing other unfolding geopolitical and humanitarian crises. For Africa to capitalise on the current movement towards such reform, we argue that three countries – SA, Kenya, and Egypt - should gather their considerable diplomatic resources and leverage their relative geopolitical advantages to elevate the continent’s legitimate demands for urgent and vital reform.