In the loop 20 January 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.37/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.38/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the COP (+1.1%), RUB (+0.6%) and THB (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-0.4%), IDR (-0.3%) and CLP (-0.3%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are down.

The World Economic Forum Annual Meeting commenced in Davos yesterday, under the overarching theme “A Spirit of Dialogue”.
Preliminary sessions and reports highlighted structural volatility in global supply chains, and debated the transformative effects of artificial intelligence (AI).
Business leaders and policymakers also began outlining strategies to stimulate growth despite geopolitical and macroeconomic pressures.

The UK labour market data for November is scheduled for release today.
The data is expected to show a further cooling in the jobs market.
The ILO unemployment rate is expected to have remained unchanged, at 5.1%, in November.
We caution that quality issues with collection of the data continue to distort the Labour Force Survey.

The Eurozone ZEW expectations survey for January is due out today, the index is expected to increase to 33.7 in January, from 25.0 in December.
The German ZEW economic expectations index for January is also due out today; the index is likely to have increased to 50.0 in January, from 45.8 in December.
The Eurozone current account data for November is also on the cards today.

US President Trump reignited trade tensions between the US and Europe over the weekend, threatening new tariffs on eight European countries over Greenland.
Trump announced that a 10% tariff on goods from European nations supporting Greenland would take effect on 1 February.
He added that the levy would rise to 25% in June unless an agreement is reached on what he described as the “complete and total purchase of Greenland”.
In response, the EU is now considering retaliatory tariffs on up to €93bn of US goods, should Washington proceed with the measures.
The EU has also signalled that it would suspend approval of its planned July trade agreement with the US.

Locally, mining production for November is due out today; production is likely to have increased by 5.0% y/y, down from 5.8% y/y in October.
On a m/m basis, mining output is likely to have increased by 0.5% in November, after having increased by 2.1% y/y in October.

Brent crude oil is currently at $63.97/bbl; ($63.94/bbl*).
Gold is at $4699/oz ($4670/oz*).
SA CDS 141bps*, Brazil 135bps* and Turkey 218bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.22%*, German bund at 2.83%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.53%*, SA’s R2035 at 8.40%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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