In the loop 10 November 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.35/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.42/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the KRW (+1.7%), CLP (+0.8%) and HUF (+0.8%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-0.9%), RUB (-0.6%) and PHP (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Iran war: President Trump has signalled that renewed US strikes were unlikely following positive talks with Qatar.
Washington, however, maintains its naval blockade, and major differences with Tehran remain.

China's cumulative trade surplus surpassed $1 trillion in October, nearly 9% higher than a year earlier, as robust export growth continued to outpace a sharp increase in imports.
Exports surged by 35.2% y/y in October, while imports increased by almost 42%, leaving a monthly trade surplus of $105.3bn.
Export growth has been particularly strong this year, supported by booming global demand for AI-related hardware.

According to the British Retail Consortium (BRC), like-for-like retail sales increased by 1.1% y/y in October, up from 1.0% y/y in September.
Total retail sales rose by 1.5% y/y in October, compared with 1.3% y/y in September, marking the strongest growth since June.
Food sales increased by 3.2% y/y, supported by Halloween-related spending, while non-food sales were unchanged as consumers postponed major purchases ahead of Black Friday promotions.
Higher household costs, rising energy bills and pressure on disposable incomes continued to weigh on discretionary spending.
The BRC cautioned that retailers face mounting cost pressures, although businesses remain hopeful that delayed consumer demand will support stronger sales during November and December.

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin signalled yesterday that resilient demand and persistently elevated inflation warrant further interest rate hikes, although policymakers should proceed cautiously.
Barkin highlighted robust corporate profits and sustained consumer spending, supported by a record period of unemployment at, or below, 4.5%.
However, he questioned the durability of consumer resilience, noting that businesses and households continue to face rising costs.
Barkin emphasised that uncertainty surrounding the demand outlook warrants a gradual and measured approach to further tightening.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee noted that inflation remains the biggest challenge facing the FOMC, with economic growth and employment holding relatively steady.
He expressed concern that services inflation has begun accelerating again, suggesting that price pressures extend beyond the impact of tariffs.
Goolsbee stressed that policymakers must acknowledge the Fed's failure to bring inflation under control and remain focused on restoring price stability.
He also warned that the rapid expansion of AI-related data centre investment is increasingly resembling traditional demand-driven overheating, potentially adding to inflationary pressures.

The US October CPI report will be a key focus today.
Headline inflation is expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m in October, from a 0.6% m/m increase in September.
Core CPI is likely to have increased by 0.2% m/m in October, from 0.3% m/m in September.
The US NFIB small business optimism index for October, also scheduled for release today, likely increased to 98.2, from 97.9 in September.

Locally, the Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS) for Q3:26 is scheduled for release today: the unemployment rate increased to 33.6% in Q2:26, from 32.7% in Q1:26.
Manufacturing production for September is also due out today; production likely declined by 2.0% y/y in September, following a 4.3% y/y decline in August.
Manufacturing output is likely to have increased by 1.5% m/m in September, after falling by 3.1% m/m in August.

Brent crude oil is currently at $91.54/bbl; ($92.57/bbl*).
Gold is at $4120/oz ($4139/oz*).
SA CDS 121bps*, Brazil 144bps* and Turkey 241bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.88%*, German bund at 3.26%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.44%*, SA's R2035 at 8.25%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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