In the loop 22 April 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R18.67/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R18.77/$*).
EM currencies were largely up yesterday; the ARS (+3.8%), PLN (+1.3%) and RON (+1.2%) were the biggest gainers; the TRY was down by 0.5%.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down, while the Shanghai Composite is up.

The IMF and World Bank Spring meetings have kicked off in Washington this week.

Central bank watch: the Bank of Russia looks set to keep interest rates on hold on Friday.
Bank Indonesia is likely to keep rates unchanged tomorrow.

ECB Governing Council member Martins Kazaks commented that US tariffs are stoking uncertainty and raising the risk of an economic recession in the region.
He added that a “recession is not currently the base scenario, but with potentially such large-scale changes in geopolitics and global trade, its probability is high”.
ECB Governing Council member Madis Muller yesterday warned that US trade tariffs and higher public spending in Germany could stoke inflation.

Eurozone and UK flash PMI data for April are due out tomorrow and will provide an indication of how economic growth is developing into Q2:25 and the first indications of the US tariff announcements.
The Eurozone composite PMI is expected to have slipped to 50.3 in April, from 50.9 in March.
The German Ifo survey for April is due out on Friday; both the current and expectations indices are expected to have slipped in March.
The UK composite PMI is also expected to have slipped to 50.5 in April, from 51.5 in March.
UK retail sales for March, due on Friday, is likely to have declined by 0.6% m/m, after having increased by 1.0% m/m in February.

US President Trump yesterday warned that US economy may slow if the Fed does not move to reduce interest rates immediately.
President Trump has repeatedly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell and suggested that he has the ability to remove the Fed Chair before the end of his term.
This has brought to the fore questions around the Fed’s independence.

US new homes sales for March are due out tomorrow; a 1.2% m/m increase is expected in March, following a 1.8% m/m increase in February.
The latest Beige Book, also due out tomorrow, will likely signal that economic activity has risen very slightly since the end of February.
Durable goods orders for March are scheduled for release on Thursday; durable goods orders are expected to have improved.
A surge in aircraft orders is expected to have boosted the headline data.
US existing home sales, due out on Friday, will likely have declined by 3.1% m/m in March, after having increased by 4.2% m/m in February.
The University of Michigan sentiment index for April (final estimate) is due out on Friday.
The sentiment index is likely to have deteriorated to 50.8 in April, from 57.0 in March.

Locally, the March CPI is in the spotlight this week (Wednesday) and is expected to come in at 2.9% y/y, from 3.2% y/y in February.
On a m/m basis, CPI is likely to have increased by 0.6% in March, after having increased by 0.9% in February.
Core CPI is expected at 3.2% y/y March, from 3.4% y/y in February.
The SARB’s leading indicator for February is scheduled for release today; the index increased to 114.4 in January.
The March PPI is on the cards on Thursday and is expected at 0.7% y/y, from 1.0% y/y in February.

Brent crude oil is currently at $66.70/bbl; ($66.26/bbl*).
Gold is at $3480/oz ($3414/oz*).
SA CDS 253bps*, Brazil 201bps* and Turkey 331bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.41%*, German bund at 2.47%**, SA 10-year generic at 10.92%**, SA’s R2035 at 10.89%**.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

** Denotes Thursday’s close.

Key events and data:

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