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In the loop 01 November 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.62/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R17.65/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the MXN (+1.0%), PHP (+0.2%) and KRW (+0.2%) were the biggest gainers; the BRL (-0.4%), RUB (-0.3%) and PEN (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
 
  • The China Caixin manufacturing PMI increased to 50.3 in October, from 49.3 in September.
  • Manufacturing activity expanded despite the week-long holiday in October.
  • The official manufacturing PMI for October, released yesterday, showed that factory activity has ended five months of contraction.
  • The data implies the stimulus package unveiled in late September as starting to lift sentiment.
 
  • The UK Nationwide house price index for October, scheduled for release today, likely increased by 2.8% y/y, from 3.2% y/y in September.
  • The housing market is likely to recover in the coming months following the BOE’s decision to start cutting rates in August.
  • Further rate cuts, combined with real wage growth, will likely improve housing affordability in the months ahead.
 
  • US non-farm payrolls (NFP) for October, in the spotlight today, are expected to have increased, by 100k, following an increase of 254k in September.
  • Weather disruptions may have affected payrolls in October.
  • The unemployment rate is likely to have remained unchanged, at 4.1%, in September.
  • The US ISM manufacturing index for October is due out today.
  • The manufacturing index is likely to have increased in October, albeit remaining below the 50pt benchmark, at 47.6, from 47.2 in September. 
  • The new orders sub-component is likely to have reflected a modest improvement in October.
 
  • Locally, the BER manufacturing PMI for October is due for release; the index is expected to have slipped to 50.8 in October, from 52.8 in September.
  • The October Naamsa vehicle sales are also due today; vehicle sales declined by 4.1% y/y in September.
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and down by 3.7% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 33.4% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $74.18/bbl; ($72.16/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $2752/oz ($2739/oz*).
  • SA CDS 192bps*, Brazil 158bps* and Turkey 268bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.28%*, German bund at 2.39%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.49%*, SA’s R2035 at 10.55%*.
 

* Denotes yesterday’s close. 

Key events and data:

  • 09h00: UK Nationwide house price index (October)
  • 11h00: SA BER manufacturing PMI (October)
  • 11h30: UK S&P Global manufacturing PMI (October – final)
  • 14h30: US non-farm payrolls (October), unemployment rate (October)
  • 15h45: US S&P Global manufacturing PMI (October – final)
  • 16h00: US ISM manufacturing (October)
  • SA Naamsa vehicle sales (October)
 

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