In the loop 23 September 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.39/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R17.42/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the IDR (+0.6%), ZAR (+0.4%) and HUF (+0.3%) were the biggest gainers; the BRL (-1.6%), MXN (-0.8%) and KRW (-0.5%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Central bank watch: the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to hold rates and keep its hawkish stance on Tuesday.
The central banks of Sweden (Wednesday) and Switzerland (Thursday) are due to meet this week; both banks are likely to trim their benchmark interest rates by 25 bps.
The Nigerian central bank is likely to hold rates steady on Tuesday
The European Central Bank’s report on monetary developments in the region for August is due out this week.

The UK and Eurozone PMI surveys for September are due out today and will offer further clarity on how growth is developing in Q3:24.
The German IFO survey for September, due on Tuesday, will provide more information about how bleak the near-term outlook is for the German economy.

The US S&P Global manufacturing PMI for September is on the cards today; it is likely to have increased but remain in contractionary territory.
The US S&P CoreLogic house price index for July is due out on Tuesday and is expected to come in at 6.0% y/y, from 6.5% y/y in June.
Cheaper borrowing costs have helped to boost demand.
The Conference board consumer confidence index for September, also due out tomorrow, likely increased to 103.5, from 103.3 in August.
The improvement is amid more upbeat views of the economy and inflation.
US new homes sales for August are due out Wednesday; a decline is expected in August.
Declining mortgage rates were likely not enough to boost sales of new homes.
The US Q2:24 GDP (third estimate), out on Thursday, is expected to come in at 2.9% q/q in Q2:24, from 3.0% q/q previously.
Durable goods orders for August, due on Thursday, are expected to have fallen by 2.8% m/m in August, following a 9.8% m/m increase in July.
Durable goods excluding transportation likely improved slightly in August.
Personal income and spending for August are scheduled for release on Friday.
The core PCE deflator is expected to have increased by 0.2% m/m in August, matching July’s increase.
The University of Michigan sentiment (final estimate) index for September is due on Friday; the sentiment index is likely to have been revised up.

Locally, the SARB’s leading indicator for July is scheduled for release on Wednesday; the index increased to 111.4 in June.
The August PPI is on the cards this week (Thursday ) and is expected at 3.5% y/y, from 4.2% y/y in July.
On a m/m basis, PPI is likely to have increased by 0.3% in August, after declining by 0.2% in July.
The Q2:24 non-farm payrolls are also due out on Thursday; payrolls decreased by 0.6% q/q in Q1:24.

Brent crude oil is currently at $75.03/bbl; ($74.49/bbl*).
Gold is at $2629/oz ($2621/oz*).
SA CDS 191bps*, Brazil 154bps* and Turkey 273bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 3.74%*, German bund at 2.20%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.04%*, SA’s R2030 at 8.86%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

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