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Corporate and Investment Bank
Standard Bank Group
South Africa 24 April 2025

Electricity Tracker

Shireen Darmalingam

  • Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) is at 56.7% in the year to date. The EAF in 2024 was at an average of 60%. This is above the average of 54.7% in 2023. The third quarter of 2024 saw a significant increase in the EAF, to more than 70% earlier in the quarter. The improvement in the EAF is largely on the back of a decline in unplanned outages. Eskom remains focused on achieving financial and operational sustainability through continued improvements in the EAF, aiming for 70%, and on a sustainable basis.
  • The unplanned outage factor (ratio of energy losses over a given time to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time) was at 28.6% in Q1:25 and has dropped to 27.6% in Q2:25 thus far; it ended 2024 at 24.8%. It is currently down slightly, at 26.2%. The planned outage factor (planned maintenance) ended 2024 just above 19% and has averaged 14.0% in 2025 thus far.
  • The decrease in the level of loadshedding by several stages in Q1:24, and the suspension of loadshedding, since 26 March 2024, came on the back of a combination of factors, including an increase in private-sector electricity self-generation capacity. Lower levels of unplanned outages have contributed significantly to the improvement supply and the suspension of loadshedding last year. There has, however, been three short bouts of loadshedding since the beginning of this year. Eskom implemented loadshedding at the end of January, noting that some plant breakdowns needed a longer time to repair and that it had used all its emergency reserves. That necessitated that need for loadshedding. A further bout of loadshedding was implemented in February. Eskom stepped it up to Stage 6 and attributed this to “multiple unit trips" at its Camden Power Station. A further bout was implemented in the first week of March.
  • Eskom’s OCGTs are intended to be used during peak periods and emergency situations to supply electricity to the national grid. April’s OCGT usage is down from February and March. The OCGT load factor declined to 9.78% during the past week (11 to 17 April 2025), marking a significant decrease from 29.95% in the week of 4 to 11 April 2025. However, it remains above the 7.9% observed during the same period last year. This reduction highlights a growing shift away from reliance on diesel. We will continue to closely monitor OCGT usage.
  • SA has experienced cumulative loadshedding of 2,886 GWh in 2024, and only 424 GWh in 2025 thus far. It was a cumulative 16,823 GWh in 2023. Despite the three short bouts of loadshedding in Q1:25, loadshedding has largely been at bay since 26 March 2024.
 

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