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In the loop 19 October 2026

In the loop

Christelle Grobler

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R16.45/$, after closing stronger on Friday (R16.48/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the BRL (+0.7%), KRW (+0.6%) and RON (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers; the MXN (-0.7%), PEN (-0.5%) and IDR (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up, while the Nikkei is down.
 
  • Iran war: Iran stepped up attacks on commercial shipping around the Strait of Hormuz, with further tanker incidents reported over the weekend.
  • Despite this escalation, Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Iran's seven-day proposal remains on the table.
  • Tehran would reopen Hormuz within six days if the US ended its blockade of Iranian ports, eased oil sanctions, and agreed to a ceasefire, with broader negotiations resuming on day seven.
 
  • China's economy grew faster than expected in Q3:26.
  • GDP growth came in at 4.5% y/y in Q3:26, up from 4.3% y/y in Q2:26; in q/q terms, growth accelerated from 0.9% in Q2:26 to 1.2% in Q3:26.
  • Exports continued to buoy growth, while domestic demand – fixed investment in particular – remained under pressure.
  • Industrial production was up 5.5% y/y in September, after increasing 5.2% y/y in August.
  • High-tech manufacturing is being supported by the AI boom.
  • Retail sales increased 1.1% y/y in September; while up from 0.4% y/y in August, retail spending remains weak.
 
  • China's prolonged property sector slump has continued to undermine domestic demand.
  • New home prices declined further by 0.14% m/m in September, after having declined 0.17% m/m in August.
  • To support the housing market recovery, authorities are reshaping how homes are sold and financed.
  • Key cities are moving away from pre-sales, under which buyers pay for flats before they are built, towards selling finished properties.
  • They are also loosening rules on mortgage interest subsidies and housing provident fund withdrawals to draw buyers back into the market.
 
  • UK Rightmove house prices rose 1.1% m/m in October.
  • This is an acceleration from an increase of 0.7% m/m in September.
  • In y/y terms, house prices are still 0.1% lower; in September, house prices were 0.8% lower than a year ago.
  • The average asking house price is currently £371,015; London house prices increased 2.5% m/m in October, to £673,942, but is still down 1.7% y/y.
 
  • Key data releases this week include flash PMI releases for October, due on Friday.
  • The UK S&P Global composite PMI likely slowed to 51.8 in October, from 52.0 in September.
  • The Eurozone S&P Global composite PMI is expected to have decelerated to 52.7 in October, from 53.1 in September.
  • The US S&P Global composite PMI likely dipped slightly, to 57.4 in October, from 58.4 in September.
 
  • Locally, the main focus this week will be on the Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) on Wednesday afternoon.
  • The MTBPS will likely underscore government's commitment to fiscal consolidation and debt stabilisation.
  • We expect Treasury to conservatively lift revenues by only about R25bn from the 2026 Budget estimates, although less conservative estimates could be twice as much.
  • Spending is likely to match Treasury's forecasts, implying a lower budget deficit to GDP in the current fiscal year.
  • Treasury has indicated that it would reveal a fiscal anchor, with the objective of ensuring future administrations staying the course.
 
  • CPI inflation for September will be released on Wednesday morning.
  • CPI is expected to have increased 0.5% m/m in September, to 4.7% y/y; CPI came in below expectations, at 4.4% y/y in August.
  • The CPI data will provide further guidance on any second-round inflation after the steep increase in fuel costs.
  • The quarterly survey of the rental inflation category in particular will provide guidance on any demand-driven inflation pressure.
  • Retail trade sales volumes for August are also due on Wednesday.
  • Sales volume growth likely slowed to 3.0% y/y in August, after growth of 3.4% y/ in July.
 
  • Brent crude is down this morning, and up by 77.5% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and down by 3.3% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $107.99/bbl; ($109.86/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $4179/oz ($4166/oz*).
  • SA CDS 130bps*, Brazil 119bps* and Turkey 249bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 5.06%*, German bund at 3.43%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.89%*, SA's R2035 at 8.69%*.
 

* Denotes Friday's close.

Key events and data:

  • 16h00: US NAHB housing market index (October)
 

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