South Africa
03 October 2024
Monthly Electricity Tracker
Shireen Darmalingam
- Eskom’s Energy Availability Factor (EAF) was at 52.6% in Q1:24 and improved to an average of 61.29% in Q2:24. The third quarter saw a more significant increase in the EAF, to more than 70% earlier in the quarter (and for the first time since mid-2020), which supports our assumption of a further recovery in economic activity. The EAF in 2024 is at an average of 65.7% This is above the average of 54.7% in 2023. The improvement in the EAF is largely on the back of a decline in unplanned outages. Eskom remains focused on achieving financial and operational sustainability through continued improvements in the EAF, aiming for 70%, and on a sustainable basis, by March 2025.
- The unplanned outage factor (ratio of energy losses over a given time to the maximum amount of energy which could be produced over the same time) was at 30.57% in Q1:24 and dropped to 27.14% in Q2:24; it is 23.60% in Q3:24 thus far. It is currently at 25.4%. The planned outage factor (planned maintenance) is just below 16% in Q3:24, up from an average of 11% in Q2:24.
- The decrease in the level of loadshedding by several stages earlier this year, and the suspension of loadshedding since 26 March, came on the back of a combination of factors, including an increase in private-sector electricity self-generation capacity. Lower levels of unplanned outages have contributed significantly to the improvement of the grid and the suspension of loadshedding six months ago.
- SA has experienced a total of 1,656 hours loadshedding thus far in 2024. This translates into 69 full days of loadshedding this year. There were 289 full days of loadshedding in 2023. SA has experienced cumulative loadshedding of 2,823 GWh in the year to date. It was a cumulative 14,701 GWh in the comparable period in 2023. Several Eskom units have returned to commercial operation and will continue to help alleviate loadshedding pressure this year. Eskom has noted that the ongoing improvements to its generation performance since the end of Q1:24 have allowed it to reduce loadshedding significantly. As such, loadshedding has been suspended now for 190 consecutive days. We expect economic growth at 1.1% in 2024, with growth picking up more materially in H2:24 and supported by the return to commercial operation of the abovementioned generating units and increased self-generation. However, risks to the growth outlook remain to the downside, should flare-ups of loadshedding recur.
- Eskom last month requested permission from the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) for permission to raise electricity prices by 36% in FY2025/26. Minister of Electricity Kgosientsho Ramokgopa commented this week that government plans to intervene to ensure that electricity prices remain low. The minister noted that the government could intervene to provide some measure of relief to the consumer. The minister, however, did not specify what action would be taken other than indicating that government could suspend certain requirements it has of Eskom. While electricity loadshedding has been suspended since 26 March, on the back of the return to commercial operation of several generating units, electricity costs have continued to rise.
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