In the loop 15 September 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.36/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R17.39/$*).
EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the RUB (+1.6%), BRL (+0.7%) and RON (+0.6%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-1.5%), KRW (-0.3%) and CLP (-0.2%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets the Nikkei, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.

Central bank watch: the US FOMC will meet on Wednesday and is widely expected to lower the Fed funds rate by 25 bps.
The Bank of Canada is also anticipated to cut its benchmark rate by 25 bps, to 2.5%.
The BOE is expected to keep rates unchanged; Governor Andrew Bailey had been cautioning against moving too quickly on further cuts.
The SARB will meet on Thursday; expectations are for the repo rate to be held steady, at 7.0%.
On Friday, the BOJ is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.5%.

UK inflation and labour market data will be in focus ahead of the BOE’s policy decision on Thursday.
August CPI is expected to have remain unchanged at 3.8% y/y, while wage growth and broader labour market conditions are likely to show further signs of cooling.
In the Eurozone, CPI figures (final estimate) are due on Wednesday; CPI is expected at 2.1% y/y, up slightly from 2.0% y/y in July.

The US Empire State manufacturing survey, due out today, is expected to show softer activity in September, with the general business conditions index easing to 5.0, from 11.9 in August.
This measure has been volatile in recent months.
Retail sales tomorrow are expected to have increased by 0.3% m/m in August, down from July’s 0.5% m/m increase, reflecting slower automotive sales.
Industrial production for August, also due out tomorrow, may show a modest 0.1% m/m decline, matching that of July.
Manufacturing output likely fell 0.2%, after holding flat in July.
Business inventories are likely to have risen 0.2% m/m in July, supported by a 0.3% m/m gain in manufacturers’ inventories.
Housing data will also draw attention this week.
The NAHB housing market index (September), due out tomorrow, could show improved builder confidence amid expectations of a Fed rate cut.
On Wednesday, housing starts are expected to have declined in August, while building permits are likely to have increased.

Locally, the BER’s Q3:25 inflation expectations will be released today.
On Wednesday, August CPI is expected to have risen slightly, to 3.6% y/y, from 3.5% y/y in July.
On a m/m basis, CPI is expected to have increased by 0.2%, from 0.9% in July.
Core CPI is projected at 3.1% y/y in August, up from 3.0% y/y in June.
The July retail sales for July, also due out on Wednesday, are expected to come in at 2.7% y/y, accelerating from a 1.6% y/y increase in June.

Brent crude oil is currently at $67.35/bbl; ($66.99/bbl*).
Gold is at $3645/oz ($3643/oz*).
SA CDS 157bps*, Brazil 132bps* and Turkey 265bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.06%*, German bund at 2.71%*, SA 10-year generic at 9.43%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.32%*.

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data:

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