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In the loop 21 July 2025

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is stronger this morning, at R17.69/$, after closing weaker on Friday (R17.71/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed on Friday; the ZAR (+0.8%), PLN (+0.6%) and BGN (+0.5%) were the biggest gainers; the ARS (-0.9%), RUB (-0.7%) and BRL (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
 
  • Central bank watch: the ECB will meet on Thursday and is largely expected to hold rates steady. 
  • The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey is expected to resume its easing cycle this month with a 250 bps cut on Thursday.
  • The Central Bank of Nigeria is expected to keep rates on hold today.
  • The Central Bank of Sri Lanka is likely to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday as it awaits more clarity on tariff talks with the US.
 
  • China’s commercial banks today kept their loan prime rates unchanged.
 
  • The ECB’s quarterly Bank Lending Survey, scheduled for release tomorrow, will be watched to assess whether lending conditions in the region are continuing to stabilize.
  • The Eurozone and UK PMI data releases for July are due out this week.
  • The Eurozone composite PMI survey for July will provide an indication of how well the economy is holding up after the boost to activity.
  • The UK composite PMI survey is likely to continue its recovery.
  • The German Ifo survey July will provide further information about the resilience of the economy to US tariff shocks.
 
  • US existing home sales for June is due out on Wednesday; existing home sales are expected to have declined by 0.7% m/m in June.
  • New home sales likely improved modestly in June, by 4.3% m/m, after plummeting 13.7% m/m in May.
  • Builders reported low traffic of prospective buyers during the month.
  • The US PMI data releases for July are also due out this week.
 
  • Locally, the June CPI is in the spotlight this week (Wednesday) and is expected to come in at 3.1% y/y, from 2.8% y/y in May.
  • On a m/m basis, CPI is likely to have increased by 0.3% in June, after having increased by 0.2% in May.
  • Core CPI is expected to have remained unchanged in June, at 3.0% y/y.
  • The SARB’s leading indicator for May is scheduled for release tomorrow; the index slipped to 112.8 in April. 
 
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and down by 7.1% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is up this morning, and up by 28.4% year-to-date.
 
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $69.36/bbl; ($69.28/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $3368/oz ($3349/oz*).
  • SA CDS 192bps*, Brazil 145bps* and Turkey 287bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.41%*, German bund at 2.69%*, SA 10-year generic at 10.02%*, SA’s R2035 at 9.93%*.
 

* Denotes Friday’s close.

Key events and data: 

  • 16h00: US leading index (June)
 

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