In the loop 01 September 2026

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

The rand is steady this morning, at R16.10/$, after closing stronger yesterday (R16.10/$*).
EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the PLN (+0.6%), KRW (+0.5%) and ZAR (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the THB (-0.7%), COP (-0.6%) and RUB (-0.4%) were the biggest losers.
Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei and Hang Seng are down, while the Shanghai Composite is up.

Iran war: The Iran war has intensified again after a month-long lull in direct military operations.
Neither side has appeared willing to make major concessions.
The arrival of additional US naval forces in the Arabian Sea has signalled Washington's intention to maintain pressure on Tehran while protecting maritime traffic.

G20 meetings: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told G20 officials yesterday that US economic growth appears to have strengthened.
He reiterated the upbeat assessment he gave at Jackson Hole last week.
Warsh said that policymakers should focus more on the economy's supply-side potential, particularly productivity, rather than near-term demand.
He highlighted the recent surge in capital expenditure and investment, which could boost productivity and lift US potential growth.
Warsh added that the global economy was experiencing an investment surge, marking a shift away from the previous era of excess savings and secular stagnation.

China's RatingDog manufacturing PMI for August increased more than expected, to 51.5, from 50.9 in July.
The increase was driven by faster growth in both output and new orders, with total new business expanding for a 15th consecutive month, the longest stretch of growth since 2018.
Export demand also improved, with foreign sales recording their strongest increase in six months.

The British Retail Consortium (BRC) shop price index showed that UK shop price inflation increased to 1.5% y/y in August, but down from 0.9% y/y in July.
The increase reflected rising energy, commodity and other input costs that are increasingly being passed on to consumers, adding to evidence of renewed inflationary pressures in the UK economy.
Food price inflation rose to 2.8% y/y (a four-month high) in August, from 2.2% y/y in July, as higher energy costs and the end of seasonal discounting lifted prices.

The UK Nationwide house price index is expected to have increased by 2.1% y/y in August, but down from 1.8% y/y in July.
It is expected to have increased by 0.1% m/m in August, matching July's increase.

The Eurozone CPI report for August will be the key data release in the region today.
Headline CPI is expected to have increased to 3.3% y/y in August, from 2.9% y/y in July.
The headline increase is likely to illustrate the broad impact of the energy shock on the Eurozone economy.
Core CPI is expected at 2.5% y/y in August, matching July's increase.
The Eurozone's unemployment rate for August, also due out today, is expected to have remained unchanged, at 6.3%.

The US ISM manufacturing PMI for August is due out today and is likely to have slipped to 55.2, from 55.6 in July.
The JOLTS job openings data for July, also due for release, likely slipped to 7.313 million in July, from 7.359 million in June.
The data comes ahead of the non-farm payrolls for August on Friday; payrolls are expected to have increased by 55k in August, after having declined by 23k in July.

Locally, the BER manufacturing PMI for August is due for release today; the index likely increased to 47.0 in August, from 46.8 in July.
The August Naamsa vehicle sales are also scheduled for release; vehicle sales increased by 11.9% y/y in July.

Brent crude oil is currently at $91.31/bbl; ($90.49/bbl*).
Gold is at $4428/oz ($4437/oz*).
SA CDS 114bps*, Brazil 121bps* and Turkey 217bps*.
Yields: US 10yr at 4.75%*, German bund at 3.32%*, SA 10-year generic at 8.77%*, SA's R2035 at 8.57%*.

* Denotes yesterday's close.

Key events and data:

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