Q2 GDP a litmus test for China's economy

China will release Q2:20 GDP data this week, shedding light on how much this economy has recovered since gradually re-opening in March.

The full picture of the two-month lockdown will only emerge next year though as the emergency policy response has protected vast swathes of this economy from the real impact but elsewhere merely papered over the cracks.

Q2:20 GDP, alongside high-frequency indicators for June, should show an economy recovering from its most severe downturn in modern history. We expect GDP to have expanded, rising from -6.8% y/y in Q1:20, to 0.4% y/y in Q2:20, as most parts of the economy have likely returned to 2019 levels, though growth rates obviously still fall short of pre-COVID-19 levels.