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In the loop 25 April 2024

In the loop

Shireen Darmalingam

What you should know this morning:

  • The rand is weaker this morning, at R19.21/$, after closing weaker yesterday (R19.20/$*).
  • EM currencies were mixed yesterday; the RUB (+1.0%), KRW (+0.7%) and IDR (+0.4%) were the biggest gainers; the COP (-0.8%), PEN (-0.6%) and PLN (-0.6%) were the biggest losers.
  • Asian equity markets are mixed this morning; the Nikkei is down, while the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite are up.
  • The US Q1:24 GDP is in the spotlight today; GDP growth is expected at 2.5% q/q in Q1:24, from 3.4% q/q in Q4:23.
  • Consumer spending is likely to have been the main driver supporting growth in Q1:24.
  • Consumer spending on retail goods picked up pace in March.
  • Residential investment is also likely to have supported GDP growth in Q1:24.
  • Business investment, however, may have moderated as companies are not revising capital plans because of election uncertainty.
  • The Turkish central bank will meet today to decide on rates; the bank is expected to keep policy rates unchanged, at 50%.
  • The central bank has already hiked rates by a cumulative 4,150 bps since the start of the hiking cycle, which began in June 2023.
  • Turkish CPI is currently at 68.5% y/y and is expected to increase further in the coming months.
  • Several ECB policymakers are scheduled to speak on the economy and monetary policy today.
  • Investors will keep an eye on comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde for further guidance on the rate cutting cycle ahead.
  • The BOJ’s two-day monetary policy meeting kicks off today.
  • The central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting.
  • Investors will keep an eye on the BOJ’s policy statement and forecasts as well as Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference tomorrow.
  • Locally, the March PPI is on the cards today and is expected at 4.5% y/y, matching February’s increase.
  • On a m/m basis, PPI is likely to have increased by 1.0% in March, after having increased by 0.5% m/m in February.
  • Eskom: loadshedding remains suspended until further notice.
  • Brent crude is up this morning, and up by 14.5% year-to-date.
  • The gold price is down this morning, and up by 12.3% year-to-date.
  • Brent crude oil is currently at $88.18/bbl; ($88.02/bbl*).
  • Gold is at $2317/oz ($2325/oz*).
  • SA CDS 251bps*, Brazil 155bps* and Turkey 310bps*.
  • Yields: US 10yr at 4.64%*, German bund at 2.58%*, SA 10-year generic at 12.15%*, SA’s R2030 at 10.74%*.

* Denotes yesterday’s close.

Key events and data:

  • 10h00: Eurozone ECB publishes Economic Bulletin
  • 11h30: SA PPI (March)
  • 13h00: Turkey interest rate decision – no change expected
  • 14h30: US GDP (Q1:24), advance goods trade balance (March), initial jobless claims (20 April)

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